Is Tyler Dibling the brightest ball-carrying talent in Europe?
Monday Night SCOUTED is the only way to find out...
I won’t lie. This introduction was written 10 minutes before this post was scheduled to go out.
Imposter syndrome took hold half-way through writing the main section of this week’s newsletter. I was so keen to make sure I was not being a bald fraud that it completely consumed my mind and I completely forgot to replace the ‘intro’ placeholder text.
Luckily, I remembered just in time.
On this week’s Monday Night SCOUTED:
Tyler Dibling and the hidden value of dribbling
SCOUTED Stats: Jamal Musiala did something only Lionel Messi had managed
SCOUTED Stats: Joško Gvardiol did something that somehow Trent Alexander-Arnold has not
Ready? Let’s begin…
The Value of Dribbling with Tyler Dibling
On Super Sunday, Tyler Dibling and Amad Diallo displayed discombobulating dribbling ability. Dibling unnerved the meanest defence in the Premier League with his silky, stop-start ball-carrying, also showcasing strength that belies his age.
Amad set United’s right-flank alight with an explosive burst inside the opening two minutes at Portman Road, providing the assist for the opening goal of the Rúben Amorim era.
Ironically, these two featured alongside each other in MNS when Southampton hosted Manchester United earlier in the season. The theme was ball-progression, the value of being able to drag your entire team up the pitch.
The ever-increasing importance of transitions only serves to make this skill more valuable. For the elite sides, transitions represent a small window in which their opponent is not settled in a compact, deep defensive shape. For those teams, a ball-carrier is the release valve, a chance to regain territory and relieve opposition pressure.
There are numerous other scenarios in which the ability to carry the ball large distances at great speed with power, poise and purpose is a game-breaking quality. For this week’s newsletter, I wanted to focus on Dibling in particular. First, I want to contextualise his output this season. Then, I want to discuss a ‘hidden’ quality.
Remember, Dibling is 18 years old and this is his first full season in senior football, let alone the top flight - he made five appearances across all competitions in 2023/24. This is the exact breakout a Premier League Rookie of the Year Award would acknowledge. Anyway…
Per Stathead, 31 forwards born in 2004 or later have played at least 270 minutes in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season. Here is Tyler Dibling’s per 90 output and ranking for my favourite ball-carrying metrics on FBref:
28.8 - Carries (16th)
3.8 - Shot-Creating Actions (10th)
4.4 - Progressive Carries (12th)
138.8 yards - Progressive Carrying Distance (8th)
1.8 - Carries into Penalty Area (13th)
3.0 - Carries into Final Third (6th)
6.1 - Attempted Take-Ons (8th)
2.3 - Successful Take-Ons (9th)
3.1 - Fouls Drawn (4th)
2.3 - Touches in Attacking Penalty Area (27th)
If you want to interrogate the list further, use this link.
Again, I want to highlight Dibling’s age: he is the fifth-youngest player in this pool and the youngest Premier League representative. I also want to highlight that he is playing for the team with the second-fewest points in Europe’s Big Five Leagues.
That being said, Dibling is one of just four players in this group to average 3+ SCAs and 3+ Fouls Drawn per 90, alongside Ilias Akhomach, Patrick Dorgu and Eliesse Ben Seghir. Only Dibling and Ben Seghir also average 3+ Carries into the Final Third.
After watching his performance this weekend and scratching the surface from a data perspective, I do not think it is bold of me to say that Tyler Dibling is one of the brightest ball-carrying talents in Europe.
But there is a metric I do not have access to that would help us dive deeper.
In a dream world, I would have access to Hudl Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric to further interrogate this pool. This graphic from the article Introducing On-Ball Value in 2021 includes two players that I would immediately use as reference points for Dibling’s role at Southampton: Jack Grealish and Adama Traoré.
In 2019/20, the season before the above graphic, Grealish set a Premier League record for most fouls won in a single season and Adama Traoré set the record for most take-ons completed. These are two ‘simple’ metrics I have personally always valued while appreciating their flaws. But seeing both players appear on the OBV graphic for the following season confirms their status as the poster boys of this profile.
That Grealish-specific graphic also illustrates what I am trying to describe. Just look at the territory gained by some of those carries. Ridiculous.
But I can’t shake the feeling there could be another piece of analysis to triple-down on this profile.
I do not yet have the skills to build models and create custom metrics, but that does not stop me from thinking about what I would try to create if I were able to, even at the risk of exposing my incompetence or ignorance.
For ball-carriers, especially those playing for weaker sides, I have been wondering whether it would be possible to measure the relief of pressure.
Now, the reason there is only one featured section in this week’s MNS is because I have been reading Statsbomb articles about OBV to make sure my theory-crafting is not something that exists.
By my understanding, Statsbomb assign OBV for unsuccessful actions based on:
how much it reduces the likelihood of the player’s own team scoring
how much it increases the likelihood of the opponent’s team scoring
Positive actions also appear to be calculated this way, but the emphasis seems to placed on increasing the likelihood of a player’s team scoring. Or, at the very least, it is a holistic view. So, what if we focussed solely on the likelihood of the opponent scoring?
Let’s take a look at two Dibling diagrams.
The first takes place in the 7th minute. Southampton have engineered an opportunity to pass through Liverpool’s four-man press and into Dibling. He eliminates one half of Liverpool’s remaining midfielders (Curtis Jones) with a turn and brings the ball into the opposition half, offloading past the other (Ryan Gravenberch).
The second takes place in the 44th minute. Southampton have successfully defended a Gravenberch foray into the box before dispossessing a dribbling Curtis Jones. Dibling wrestles off and weaves in between Jones and Andy Robertson to carry the ball into the opposition half. He attempts to release Adam Armstrong with an outside-of-the-boot through ball but overhits it.
After Mark Thompson answered my call for aid - Mark is data software engineer at Twenty3 Sports and author of the Get Goalside newsletter - I can confidently say that Dibling would rack up OBV in both scenarios for taking the ball away from his own goal and moving it towards the opponent’s, reflecting his ability to relieve pressure and generate threat.
However, if I were a player’s agent looking for a new contract or part of the recruitment team for a counter-attacking club, being able to see the specific defensive value these carries bring could be an valuable tool for negotiations or scouting.
Perhaps focussing on the value attributed at the start and end of each carry based on the opponent’s likelihood of scoring within 10 seconds of recovering the ball in that position - i.e. how bad is it if a turnover happens in each spot? - could form the basis of a separate model. Then, the difference between each value would represent the amount of ‘relief’.
You could also then track the distance of relief carries. This could be based on carries that happen inside a player’s own defensive third and release pressure based on a minimal threshold. That will help differentiate between players that escape pressure often with quick turns away before being brought down close to their origin with those that can cover the length of the pitch, the one-man clearances.
As we know, Liverpool scored within 10 seconds of Jones' tackling Mateus Fernandes on the edge of Southampton’s box. Of course, he was not helped by the throw and there was a botched clearance that could have solved the issue.
But what if Dibling had received the ball, turned away from the press and drawn a foul? The territory gained combined with the evasion of the press would be extremely valuable. Just as the dispossession and failed clearance was extremely detrimental.
A model that focuses purely on this relief could help quantify that. Quantifying it would make it easier to evaluate and discover more players like this. After all, they are one of the most exciting profiles to watch. Just look at the reaction to Dibling’s latest display of dribbling.
If anyone reading this has that model, knows where to find that model or wants to build that model, please share and please go ahead. I am fully aware that it will exist in some form and hope I have successfully celebrated the potential value of it above all else.
SCOUTED Stats
Every week, I interrogate the fresh smorgasbord of data generated by a slate of European football to pick out the statistical anomalies you should be aware of - all in service of, of course, discovering the next big thing.
It’s a very juicy section this week. Let’s dive straight in.
☄️ Despite not scoring, Jamal Musiala broke the single-game U23 record for shots AND shots on target in Bayern’s 3-0 win against Augsburg. He cracked off 10 shots and registered six shots on target. Across all ages, only Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has attempted more shots in a match this season (12) while Marvin Ducksch is the only player with more shots on target (7).
Against Augsburg, Musiala also registered 14 Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area, recorded 12 Shot-Creating Actions, completed five Take-Ons, played three Key Passes and made three Tackles.
Since 2017/18, only three players under the age of 23 have registered a Shots-SCA Double Double. On 1 July 2020, Lucas Paquetá attempted 10 shots and recorded 11 SCA for Milan in a 2-2 draw against SPAL. 25 days later, Musa Barrow attempted 10 shots and generated 15 SCA for Bologna in a 3-2 win against Lecce. Four years later, Musiala has joined the club.
Overall, there are 24 on the Stathead database for this Double Double. Lionel Messi is responsible for seven of them. 8/24 did not result in a direct goal contribution, even one of Messi’s - he recorded 10-10 in a 2-1 Barcelona defeat against Cádiz in December 2020. The performance that returned the most G/A was Neymar’s 10-10 against Dijon in January 2018. The Brazilian scored four goals and provided two assists in an 8-0 win.
Breaking down Musiala’s feat further, five of his 12 Shot-Creating Actions were successful Take-ons. This is a single-game record across Europe’s Big Five Leagues for any age this season. Have a look at the full shot breakdown from the match below and pay particular attention to Musiala’s shot in the 85th minute. He was awarded both SCAs for a successful take-on. Even if you have not seen the shot, you can picture him bobbing and weaving towards the area. What a shame this effort was blocked.
Since 2017/18, only 21 entries of 5+ SCA from Take-ons exist. Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Allan Saint-Maximin and Wilfried Zaha are the only players to appear multiple times. But the record belongs to Naïm Sliti: he generated six for Dijon against Guingamp in May 2018.
There is your next target, Jamal.
🔑 Yes, Manchester City lost 4-0 and he made a mistake leading to James Maddison’s second goal, but Joško Gvardiol made EIGHT key passes against Tottenham Hotspur, equalling Nico Paz’s single-game record. Spurs only played nine key passes as entire team, demonstrating how ruthless and efficient Ange Postecoglou’s side was at the Etihad.
Since 2017/18, only four defenders have played more key passes in a single Big Five European League game: Antonio Candreva (10), Filip Kostić (10), Joshua Kimmich (9) and Alfie Doughty (9). Looking at the shot breakdowns, at least two for each player were from dead-ball situations. All eight of Gvardiol’s were from open play.
Since 2017/18, there only three defenders under the age of 23 have made 8+ key passes in a Big Five European League game. Somehow, Trent Alexander-Arnold is not one of them.
If only Erling Haaland could finish…
💨 Jérémy Doku’s MD1 record for Total Carrying Distance has finally been beaten. Piero Hincapié carried the ball 631 yards in Bayer Leverkusen’s 5-2 win against Heidenheim, seven yards more than Doku managed against Chelsea in August. I know I keep mentioning Ecuador centre-backs but I really had no choice this week.
However, Hincapié did not quite best his Progressive Carry Distance. Despite becoming just the third U23 player to crack 400 yards for this metric, he was 24 away from Doku’s single-game record. Brest centre-back Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye is the only other U23 player in the 400 club.
🩰 Nico Williams attempted 15 take-ons against Real Sociedad in the Basque derby. This falls one short of Abdul Fatawu’s U23 record of 16. However, whereas Nico completed just five of his attempts, Fatawu completed 12 - this remains the single-game record for successful take-ons.
Similar to Dibling, Fatawu was Leicester City’s escape from a block so deep that it caused Steve Cooper to lose his job. Remember that pool of 31 2004+ forwards I mentioned earlier? Well, the Ghanaian ranked:
1st for attempted take-ons per 90 - the only player averaging 10+
2nd behind Jamie Gittens for successful take-ons per 90
4th for Progressive Distance per 90 behind only Eliesse Ben Seghir, Désiré Doué and Sávio
=4th with Dibling for fouls won
As you can probably tell, I was gutted to hear about his season-ending injury during the international break.
⛔ Etienne Youte Kinkoue made SEVENTEEN clearances in Le Havre’s 2-0 win against Nantes, breaking Murillo’s single-game U23 record (15) and equalling the Ardian Ismajli’s across all age groups. Deployed as the CCB in a back three, Kinkoue did not make a single tackle or interception. The 196 cm, 84 kg Frenchman was purely on get-rid duty.
For further context, Nantes’ entire team only had to make 20 clearances - SCOUTED favourite Nathan Zézé led the way with seven, of course.
🧹 Alessandro Bianco equalled the record for Ball Recoveries in a single match. The 22-year-old Monza midfielder joins Tim Iroegbunam, Matteo Ruggeri, Guela Doué and Pape Matar Sarr on 13.
SCOUTED HQ is a flurry of activity as we try not to go bust over Christmas. Exciting!
Last week at SCOUTED:
Here is what you might have missed since the last MNS post:
Llew’s weekly SCOUT NOTES includes a glimpse into the future of England and Wales, the SCOUTED seal of approval for Celta Vigo, and a non-linear player pathway
Coming soon at SCOUTED:
It’s funny how everything seems to happen at once, right? In our case, that means an absolute avalanche of great reading is coming your way before Christmas.
Here’s what’s on the menu:
Tomorrow morning I’ll drop my UEFA Watchlist for this week’s European fixtures, so you know exactly which young players to keep an eye on as the games develop
If you haven’t heard of Diego Luna, MLS Young Player of the Year, you will soon. Tom and I sat down with Real Salt Lake’s talismanic creator and have put together a narrative long-read we think you’ll enjoy
I’ve spent weeks scouring MLS to understand how Aston Villa - and before them, Chicago Fire - discovered Jhon Durán, and how they a smart club might do it again. My analytical epic is coming this week
Llew does not rest in his quest to bring you the best stories from across the world of youth football, and has a bumper SCOUT NOTES lined up before he, too, shares an analytical epic on - surprise - the talent hiding in Scandinavia
The UEFA Youth League is back as club football returns and we’ll be watching with eagle eyes to provide our unparalleled coverage - literally, you can’t find this anywhere else
Our man on the ground, Phil Costa, visited Luton Town last week. There, he sat down with Arsenal academy graduate Reuell Walters for a no-holds-barred, expansive - and quietly explosive - interview
All this, and much more, is yours by subscribing to our indie magazine.
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