The curious case of Rasmus Højlund
A Monday Night SCOUTED investigation.
Happy New Year!
I know, the unofficial deadline for using that greeting has passed, but this is the first SCOUTED post of 2025. In truth, we had planned to publish more things at the end of December and earlier this year - but we didn’t.
Partly because I seemed to contract the same illness as has struck down every Premier League squad recently; but mostly because we just needed a break, and we think it’s nice for your inboxes not to be barraged with emails for a while. Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
We can take breaks like these, for the health of our small team, because our base of paid subscribers holds strong every time we do. I think just one person unsubscribed over the entire holiday break. One! It’s difficult to overstate just how incredible this security feels amidst the unending noise of the ‘content’ business - thank you all so much.
Anyway, we’re back. The SCOUTED Snooze is over. We are awake. And in the first Monday Night SCOUTED of 2025, we’re talking shots and strikers.
In a September edition of MNS, I looked at Jhon Durán’s destruction of Expected Goals. This included some insight into Non-Penalty xG per Shot led to this aside:
Just quickly, I want to use this moment to introduce an example of the nuance needed to interrogate these outliers - and this can be done before even watching the player. Just as lots of shots does not always result in lots of goals, high NPxG/Shot on its own does not make a world-class striker.
Haaland averages 3.9 shots per 90. Consider that alongside 0.20 NPxG/Shot and it’s easy to see why he broke Wayne Rooney’s record for the most goals scored after the opening four games of a Premier League season. Haaland has quality and quantity.
Cavani averaged 2.2 during his time at United, Awoniyi averages 2.1 and Højlund is averaging 1.6;. So, despite the fact Højlund is taking good shots, he is getting fewer opportunities to do so. That’s why missing these chances became so poignant.
While Haaland can afford to miss a chance safe in the knowledge at least two more will be on the way, Højlund was often only presented with one. Whether this lower shot volume is as a result of player or team quality is another question for another time.
I am pleased to announce that now is that time.
My personal opinion is this: Rasmus Højlund has all the tools needed to become a successful Power Forward, in a similar mould to Rúben Amorim’s previous striker, Viktor Gyökeres.
If I was part of the Manchester United recruitment team, I would be lobbying for transfer funds to be diverted elsewhere because I believe we have a striker that can perform the role at the required level.
I would also admit that, as of right now, Højlund does not shoot enough. My job would be to discover why, explain why I think this will naturally improve and suggest solutions to speed up the process.
But what if I am wrong? Well, I would also provide alternatives. As this is a SCOUTED article and I am not working for Manchester United, I am going to provide a list of U23 players that fit the profile I have created.
For an introduction to Power Forwards, take a look at this edition of MNS from October. This is how I described it:
In my head, the phrase ‘Power Forward’ evokes all the classic physical traits associated with the traditional prefix, but allows for the inclusion and emphasis of modern traits: explosive speed and sharp off-the-ball movement, for example.
To me, a Power Forward is powerful - big, fast, strong - and responsible for making block-destroying runs and generating a game-breaking number of shots. Secondary traits include those you might associate with Target Forwards or even Poachers.
Højlund is half-way there.
Winther is Coming
In the chaos of the 2-2 draw between Liverpool and Manchester United on Sunday, I found myself focussing on the Dane. This produced the following insight on BlueSky.
The runs and movement is there for Rasmus Højlund. He is pulling Ibrahima Konaté and Virgil Van Dijk every step with him.
The next step is building that automatic, ruthless approach to shooting and therefore goal-scoring. Needs to build a clear catalog of what to do in certain scenarios.
In the first half, Bruno Fernandes played a ball across and asked Højlund to make the run in front of Van Dijk rather than hanging out at the back post.
For that equaliser, he forces Van Dijk to follow and leaves the space for Amad arriving.
Another one in the + column.
With more time to process, I want to emphasise Højlund’s physicality. Against two of the most dominant centre-backs in European football, he competed. Ibrahima Konaté and Virgil van Dijk had to follow him for every step over large distances. Not many strikers pull them about and force them to lock in.
To further explain why I believe he will become a Might Morphin'g Power Ranger Forward, watch this clip of Kylian Mbappé. It was so jarring I had to screen record it.
Before I moan, allow me to display awareness that Mbappé has attempted the third-most shots in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season in total and is averaging 4.3 per 90 minutes. Runs do not always equal shots but I believe the runs will equal more shots in the long run. I am sure you would agree that this is not what you want your centre-forward to be doing in this situation.
For me, in this situation, Mbappé has to continue his run beyond the centre-backs. Instead, he jolts to create large separation from his markers, only to find himself behind the ball.
A high-intensity run in behind would not only create more space for Jude Bellingham to carry and eventually play a through ball into the left-hand channel - Mbappé’s natural habitat - it will also open up the pitch for a potential switch to Rodrygo. Mbappé might not get the ball, but it is the most dangerous run he can make. He has to be selfless.
It is a theme that has run through all of our SkillCorner analytical epics. But don’t just take our word for it.
Using data inspired by SkillCorner’s suite, Carlon Carpenter - Head of Analysis at Houston Dynamo, co-founder of the Association of Professional Football Analysis and formerly of StatsBomb - recently used final third movement during 2023/24 Austrian Bundesliga season as a case study to quantify and evaluate off-ball threat.
You should absolutely read the entire article, but I want to highlight three of Carlon’s four takeaways (I can’t give it all away):
Teams should encourage high volume of movements from attackers to create space, whether targeted or not.
Regardless of the position in the final third, runs which attack space & force opponents to drop/reorganize add the most value.
Do everything at SPEED.
Firstly, I completely agree. Secondly, not only do I believe that Højlund runs the ‘routes’ I described in the screenshot above, but I know for a fact that he does them at SPEED. He is one of the fastest players in the Premier League. I have evidence.
Based on a quick peek at SkillCorner data for the latest weekend of Premier League fixtures, Højlund generated more Expected Threat through his Runs than any other centre-forward to play at least 45 minutes. He also clocked the highest PSV-99 (Peak Sprint Velocity) of any player. Erling Haaland was second, Antonee Robinson was third.
So, why did he only have ONE shot against Liverpool?
SHOOOOOOOOOOOOT!
I keep saying Højlund does not shoot enough but I have yet to actually prove it. To break things up, I am going to provide a list of insights that will do just that.
In his Big Five League career, Højlund has attempted 1 or fewer shots in 31 out of 59 games when playing at least 45 minutes, 52.5% of those matches
In his Big Five League career, Højlund has failed to attempt a shot in 17 out of 59 games when playing at least 45 minutes, 28.8% of those matches
In his Premier League career, Højlund has attempted 1 or fewer shots in 22 out of 36 games when playing at least 45 minutes, 61.1% of those matches
The most shots he has attempted in a Big Five European League game is 5, doing so twice for Atalanta
The most shots he has attempted in a Premier League game is 3, doing so on four occasions (twice against Luton Town)
Of the 175 players with 450+ minutes exclusively as a forward (this will include some wingers) in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season, Højlund ranks 174th for Shots per 90 (1.02)
What is the reason for this? I will defer to Connor Rowden, Talent ID, Scouting and Recruitment at MRKT Insights.
Without explicitly saying you should read his thread instead of my article, Connor’s post-game thoughts about Højlund cemented the Dane’s place as the MNS centre-piece.
The ‘lack of service’ debate is polarising and leads to a lively social media discussion and not much else. As Connor highlights, Højlund is receiving the ball. I will let his 2024/25 Premier League shot map do the rest.
I have mentioned how much weight I place on Connor’s insight before and this only goes to show why.
I had built up the idea that Højlund preferred his strong side. In fact, the orthodox channel run is a staple of my Power Forward archetype - there are mentions of it littered throughout the screenshots in this article. But I did not realise this preference for the left had created an absence on the right.
Compare Højlund’s shot map to that of Gyökeres:
And then, using the examples Connor provides in his thread, those of Erling Haaland and Romelu Lukaku:
Højlund is the only player that does not have a smattering of shots across the entire width of the six-yard box, let alone the entire area.
Connor is bang on.
This season, 10 out of Højlund’s 11 shots have been with his left foot. I do not expect every centre-forward to be ambipedal, but I personally place a lot of value on players that have an even spread across both feet: Diogo Jota, Son Heung-min and - can I shock you? - Jamie Vardy. It is also the reason why I am tracking Franjo Ivanović.
Here is one of my favourite stats I provided for a Squawka article last January.
Across Europe’s top seven leagues, the Champions League and Europa League since 2018/19, only two out of 13,157 players have attempted at least 30% of shots with their right foot, 30% with their left and 20% with their head.
Of course, Diogo Jota is one of those, and he is joined by former Premier League striker Jamie Vardy.
In a difficult period, Højlund appears to have reverted to his comfort runs, comfort channel and comfort foot, resulting in a predictability that is easy to defend and therefore a sub-standard production of shots.
But there is hope.
His 2023/24 Premier League shot map is well-balanced, if anything, it favours the right. That cluster is tight and does not deviate too far away from the width of the goal. On the left, we see a lot of those difficult cross-goal, wide-angle, strong-side shots Connor alludes to.
His 2022/23 Serie A shot map is left-side dominant but covers a broader area of the box. It’s no surprise to find out that this season represents Højlund’s highest shot output (2.65 per 90).
So, how do we get Højlund back to this number? Is it possible?
Adapt or Die
Let me be clear, I am aware Rúben Amorim is unlikely to make adjustments purely to accommodate one player. But, I believe these could aid Højlund’s development or, at the very least, help the club to arrive at a definitive evaluation.
If the left-side bias Connor highlighted is the main issue, I believe tweaking the system to a 3-5-2 might be the answer. In my head, it provides two potential solutions:
Accommodate
To lean into the bias, United could deploy a forward to mirror Højlund on the right. This would present a dual threat and allow him to share responsibilities with another player. Yes, this makes the player predictable, but United as a team less so.
The Sturm Graz factory develops strikers as a duo and Højlund was a product of this, operating on the left of a front two in the typical 4-1-2-1-2 system. Perhaps this fostered his left-side preference?
But United do not have many options for the right forward spot. Joshua Zirkzee appears to be looking for an escape and Marcus Rashford has all-but left the club.
That leaves Amad Diallo or Alejandro Garnacho.
You could argue that selecting Amad would present the exact same team that started against Liverpool. However, deploying Amad in a similar role to that given to Ademola Lookman by Gian Piero Gasperini could balloon the Ivorian’s output and Højlund’s.
Encourage him to play an even more advanced role, focus on carrying the ball into the penalty area more than into the final third. A quick glance at their heat maps suggest he is not too far off.
The alternative is to play Garnacho as the forward and return Amad to his inverted wing-back role. I would lean towards the Amad-Ademola idea. Neither is perfect. But they are options.
Adapt
A 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2 system could also be used to force Højlund to operate on the right-hand side.
At Atalanta, Højlund was most often used on the right when Gasperini deployed a front two. As we mentioned, this season produced his most productive campaign in terms of shots - he even played alongside the aforementioned Lookman a few times.
For Denmark, Højlund has also dovetailed effectively from this flank with Jonas Wind. Christian Eriksen pulls the strings behind the pair, deployed in front of a physical midfield. For United, Fernandes would adopt Eriksen’s role ahead of the promising Ugarte-Mainoo pivot.
Again, the issue is that his current club lacks an ideal candidate for the left-sided role; or at least one that has a long-term future. In my head, the best version of Marcus Rashford would thrive in this set-up. Garnacho would be the next best option which then would again require Amad to return to RWB given his must-start status.
The idea is that by removing the comfort of the left channel, Højlund would have to adapt or be sold. I would again like to emphasise that I think the latter should be avoided.
A quick scouting trip
Whether Manchester United want to replace Højlund or find a partner for him, they will need to invest long-term. The reported loan deal for Randal Kolo Muani will be a short-term fix.
How much they will be able to spend and which players they can target this summer will depend on whether they can secure any form of European football for next season.
When I spoke to Llew about this piece—I needed reassurance about putting eggs in the Højlund basket—he was adamant that another season at Gasperini’s Atalanta would have been much better for the Dane.
So, you could argue that all of these players should reject a potential move to Manchester United in order to prioritise their personal development. Or, you could say that if Højlund was signed too young despite playing for a Serie A side, why would these players be any different?
To that I will respond: this is simply a list of players that I would put forward. There will be caveats for all of them but until we start working for a club or as consultants (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) you only get the first step for free.
To discover the players, I used Stathead to find forwards born in 2001 or later with at least 450 minutes in the 14 leagues with Advanced Data during the 2024/25 season (or 2024 for calendar year leagues).
This produced a list of 635 players that I exported with the following per 90 stats, which you can find using this link.
Shots
Shot On Target
Average Shot Distance (yards)
Non-penalty Goals
Non-Penalty Expected Goals (NPxG)
NPxG per Shot (NPxG/Shot)
Touches
Touches in Attacking Penalty Area
Carries
Progressive Carrying Distance
Using these, I have also calculated the following custom metrics:
Touches per Shot
% of Total Touches inside Attacking Penalty Area (Penalty Box Proximity)
Progressive Distance per Carry
I did not remove any players based on multiple positions. There might be a wide-forward that has also played at wing-back that could have the tools to develop as a forward in a front two. I did not want to miss out.
I also do not have any physical data to refine the list so judging their ability to play the Power Forward role would have to be done in step two.
Samu Aghehowa would be the first draft pick, especially considering what he did to United in the UEFA Europa League this season. But I do not think United will be in a position to compete for his signature.
Instead, as SCOUTED’s own Joe Donnohue highlighted at the start of the season, Thierno Barry is a similar profile and has once again made a seamless step up in quality. In 2021/22, Barry was playing in the fifth tier of French football. Now, he’s rattling off 3.5 Shots per 90 for Villarreal in his debut LaLiga campaign at an Average Distance of 12.1 yards. He’s also 195 cm tall.
Only five players in this database rank in the 90th percentile and above for Shots, Average Shot Distance (closer the better), Touches per Shot (fewer the better) and Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area:
🇨🇦 Promise Tobi David (2001, Union Saint-Gilloise)
🇺🇸 Ricardo Pepi (2003, PSV Eindhoven)
🇮🇹 Francesco Esposito (2005, Spezia)
🇺🇸 Folarin Balogun (2001, Monaco)
🇧🇷 Igor Jesus (2001, Botafogo)
The latter has recently been linked to a move to Arsenal. Now we start to see why.
Llew previously mentioned that Salvatore Esposito was too good for Serie B, perhaps the same can be said for his younger brother, Francesco.
On loan from Inter, check out Pio’s goal against Catanzaro before Christmas. It is peak Power Forward.
There is also a trio of 2. Bundesliga strikers you should make a note of if you have not already.
Stefanos Tzimas (2006) has been championed by Llew in SCOUT NOTES and beyond, while Damion Downs (2004) appeared in the Power Forwards introductory newsletter I linked earlier. Nicolo Tresoldi (2004) completes the hat-trick, although he appears to have the most compact frame at 182 cm.
Tzimas has recorded more Shots On Target per 90 than any other player in this database (2.6). Only 2002-born Rodez Aveyron centre-forwrd Tawfik Bentayeb is averaging fewer touches per shot than Downs (5.4 vs. 6.4).
All three 2. Bundesliga centre-forwards rank in the 85th percentile and above for Shots, Average Shot Distance, Touches per Shot and Penalty Box Proximity. However, I have not made any adjustments for league quality.
Liam Delap would be the eye test selection. His bulldozer-like approach to leading the line is exactly what I want to see from Højlund. Both born in February 2003, Højlund is four days older, here is a quick look at their output this season using the McLach App.
The Self-Created Shot % is a very nice metric to consider for the Power Forwward profile. For Delap, it stands out alongside Carries into the Penalty Area and Successful Take-ons.
These match the one-man army perception of his role at Ipswich Town. This role, in turn, also explains why he does not rank super high for any particular metric in our database. He has to cover an enormous amount of ground before he enters shooting range - Delap unleashes the Kraken at an Average Distance of 15.6 yards - which inhibits his output. 2.0 Shots per 90 is twice as many as Højlund but only ranks in the 41st percentile within out database.
Regardless of whether Kieran McKenna’s side go down or not, they will be fielding bids for Delap next summer. I wonder if these February 2003-ers could play together…
The final name I am going to put forward requires some lateral thinking.
Kevin Schade has played the majority of his minutes for Brentford at left-wing; his recent hat-trick against Leicester City came from this position. However, I think he could be a very strong left-forward in a front two.
From this wide position, Schade ranks in the 98th percentile for Average Shot Distance and in the 93rd percentile for NPxG/Shot. Brentford are a brilliantly drilled side that focus on creating high-quality chances above all else, that helps. But the exposure to that style of coaching paired with a more advanced role even closer to the goal could deliver serious results.
As I mentioned earlier, peak Rashford feels like the perfect player for this role. I think Schade would be a smart replacement for him and a complementary partner for Højlund.
SCOUTED Stats
The previous Monday Night SCOUTED was published on 16 December 2024. That means more opportunities to break single-game records. Let’s get straight to it.
🎩⚽️ At the age of 22 years and 62 days old, Thierno Barry became the youngest player to score a hat-trick in a Big Five European League game this season. He scored the opening three goals in Villarreal’s 2-5 win against Leganés. The other U23 players to score 3+ goals in a single game this season are Cole Palmer (4), Noni Madueke and Arnaud Kalimuendo.
🎩🅰️ At the age of 21 years and 232 days old, Florian Wirtz became the young player to provide a hat-trick of assists in in a Big Five European League game this season. Palmer is the only other U23 player to do so. Wirtz also scored in the 5-1 win against Freiburg, joining Palmer and Michael Olise as the only U23 players to be directly involved in 4+ goals in a B5L game in 2024/25; Palmer the only one to do so multiple times.
🧹 The record of 13 Ball Recoveries remains unbeaten but three players have joined the club since the last update. Pedri racked up 13 in Barcelona’s 1-2 defeat to Atlético Madrid - it was one of the best individual displays I have watched this season, I cannot believe he finished on the losing side. Milos Kerkez and Matheus Fernandes then equalled the record on the same day, against Fulham and Crystal Palace respectively.
☄️ Julio Enciso, a personal favourite, attempted eight Shots in Brighton’s 0-0 draw with Brentford. Although this tied Alejandro Garnacho’s single-game record for the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, the Paraguayan was two short of Jamal Musiala’s B5L record. If Højlund’s lack of shots deserves attention, Enciso should be studied for his ability to generate opportunities at will.
📬 Tom Bischof continued his ridiculous season by equalling Yacer Aspirlla’s record for Passes into the Penalty Area. He racked up eight in Hoffenheim’s 1-2 defeat to Gladbach. Remember, FBref only measures successful passes for this metric and does not include set-pieces. Pedri recorded seven in that defeat to Atleti. I repeat: it was one of the best individual displays I have watched this season, I cannot believe he finished on the losing side. It’s also worth mentioning that Bischof also held onto his single-game record of 12 Tackles over the festive period. He is out of contract this summer.
🏹 Nathaniel Brown smashed the record for Crosses in Frankfurt’s 1-3 defeat to Mainz 05. Inflated by his 10 corner kicks, Brown whipped in 17 in total, four more than Sávio’s previous record of 13.
⛺️ Nick Woltemade equalled Noni Madueke and Sávio’s record for Touches in the Attacking Penalty with 17 in VfB Stuttgart’s 0-1 defeat to St. Pauli—is it me or are all of these stat leaders losing their game?
🧲 Charlise Cresswell became the first player of ANY age to record 20 Clearances in a B5L game this season. The 22-year-old Englishman also blocked four shots during Toulouse’s 0-1 win against Lens on Sunday. An incredible defensive shift. Cresswell also holds the top two spots for Most Aerial Duels Won Without Losing A Single One in a B5L game this season. He won 9/9 against Nantes in August before winning 7/7 against Saint-Étienne in December.
That is your lot for this week.
If everything goes to plan, we have those big things coming this week. Stay tuned.
Thank you for reading. Thank you for supporting SCOUTED.
Jake
Great read, but would have loved to see an alternative plan proposed other than the 2 up front, which strikes me as unlikely. How else, aside from that, could Amorim get more out of Hojlund?
Really great read and happy new year. Saw Rasmus play for Atalanta against Torino in 2023 where I am pretty sure he was the lone striker. He didn’t really make an impact in that game despite the hype at the time. Agree he could be more effective in a front two.
There’s been quite a lot of debate surrounding Enciso here at Brighton in recent weeks. Although he has a huge volume of shots he rarely scores. 4 goals from 110 shots in his time at Brighton. Everyone remembers his worldie goals but not the shots that go for throw ins!
Looking forward to reading your takes in 2025.