Who is the most progressive passer of them all?
Monday Night SCOUTED is the mirror on the wall.
Following Arsenal’s 3-0 win against Monaco on Wednesday night, debate and discussion raged within the fanbase about what Martin Ødegaard does and does not do. After the 0-0 draw with Everton, it returned. I will not bore you with the specifics, but I have been excited to explore a wider concept further.
As a result, this week’s Monday Night SCOUTED - the final one of 2024 - includes another case study style discussion rather than focussing on a collection of performances from the weekend. As always, let me know how you’re feeling about these.
Also, as this is the last MNS of the year, the SCOUTED Stats section is an As Things Stand™ review of every metric, including a few notes about players that made the cut this weekend.
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Nobody knows what it means, but it’s provocative progressive…
Feel free to disagree, but I think ✨ Progressive ✨ is one of the most popular words in football discourse. People pine for progression and labelling someone as a progressive passer appears to be one of the highest compliments you can pay - while a supposed inability to progress the ball is often the main source of criticism for a player. The word paints a vivid, specific picture.
I believe that football fans, including myself, associate the word with moving the ball forward often and across large distances. I.e. a progressive passer is usually a player that breaks lines from deep with longer-range passes. In a similar fashion, I associate progression via ball-carrying with ground-gobbling runs up the pitch.
But how close is that picture to reality? Well, it does not line up exactly with FBref definitions:
Progressive Passes - Completed passes that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area. Excludes passes from the defending 40% of the pitch
Progressive Carries - Carries that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any carry into the penalty area. Excludes carries which end in the defending 50% of the pitch
There are some key things to consider. The most important of all is that any completed pass / carry into the penalty area is classed as Progressive, no matter how far the ball has travelled.
This is not to say I don’t agree or that is an issue, but I would be interested to know how many people knew that was the case or at the very least expected it to be. As a result, I feel like the prolific use of this date has warped the perception of particular players and can lead to the misidentification of certain profiles.
To use Martin Ødegaard as an example. He is one of the best in the world at getting the ball into the penalty area, specifically via his passing. In 2023/24, he played 130 successful passes into the opposition box, at least 41 more than any other player in Europe’s Big Five Leagues. Since FBref started collecting this data in 2017/18, only Lionel Messi has managed more in a single campaign. That is incredible.
However, I do not think people would describe many players on this list as elite ‘Progressive Passers’ based on the universal understanding of that phrase - once again, I am more than happy to be told otherwise.
There is absolutely no doubt that getting the ball into the penalty area is one of the most valuable actions a player can take. But I feel like Penetrative would be a better adjective.
By including these passes within Progressive metrics, we may miss out on the discovery of players that area really good in and around the penalty area or players that are really good at finding them.
To further illustrate my point, here is an extreme example of how two passes would both be logged as a Progressive Pass despite serving an entirely different purpose.
Declan Rice passes the ball 30 yards, breaking the midfield line and into the feet of Martin Ødegaard, who receives the ball just outside of the penalty area
Ødegaard turns before passing into the box via a five-yard pass in between full-back and centre-back and into the path of Bukayo Saka
Both passes are extremely valuable. Both are difficult skills to execute. Both passes would be logged as a Progressive Pass. But I would argue that only Pass 1 would be described as progressive when analysing the game.
Let me be clear, I am not saying the metric is wrong. If anything is flawed, it is our understanding and application of it. I am also completely aware that clubs, data analysts and scouts will already have a way of distinguishing the difference. After all, Passes / Carries into the Penalty Area are recorded individually, you can start interrogating further by looking at them.
So consider this an introduction into how that might happen and how you can do the same if you only have access to FBref data - like us! How can we start to separate Progression - getting the ball towards players that get the ball into the penalty area - from Penetration - getting the ball into the penalty area - in order to refine your scouting even further?
…it gets the people going
Well, building on points discussed in the Tyler Dibling Dribbling newsletter and the Inverted Wing-back Watchlist, looking at the Progressive Yards per Pass / Carry can help us discover a new list of players.
Given the fact I have indexed heavily into dribbling and ball-carrying in recent newsletters, I am going to focus on passing from here on out. You can swap ‘Pass’ for ‘Carry’ at any point to apply the same logic.
Also, calculating the percentage of Progressive Passes that are Passes into the Penalty Area can help further separate the lock-picking playmakers and the line-breakers progressors.
364 players born in 2001 or later have played at least 450 minutes in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season. I have exported the following stats for each of them in order to calculate my custom metrics:
Passes Completed (Cmp)
Passes into the Final Third (Into3rd)
Passes into the Penalty Area (PPA)
Progressive Passes (PrgP)
Progressive Passing Distance (PrgDist)
My manually calculated metrics are:
Percentage of Passes Completed as Progressive Passes (PrgP/Cmp)
Progressive Passes excluding Passes into the Penalty Area (PrgP-PPA)
Percentage of Passes Completed as Progressive Passes excluding Passes into the Penalty Area (PrgP-PPA/Cmp)
Percentage of Passes Completed as Passes into Final Third (Into3rd/Cmp)
Percentage of Passes Completed as Passes into the Penalty Area (PPA/Cmp)
Progressive Yards per Pass Completed (PrgDist/Cmp)
SCOUTED Stats spolier alert: Rayan Cherki is the 01+ leader for Progressive Passes per 90 across Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season. However, when we investigate the top 10 for this metric with our new calculations, a variety of playing styles become clear.
The first thing you might notice is that 44.6% of Cherki’s Progressive Passes are Passes into the Penalty Area. Aleksandar Pavlović, Adam Wharton and Angelo Stiller - three players I would argue are synonymous with the Progressive Passer paradigm - all average below 20% for this metric.
If we sort our top 10 by this new metric, Cherki, Michael Olise, Yaser Asprilla, Florian Wirtz and Lee Kang-in all appear as large outliers. It’s giving playmakers.
More spoliers: Olise is the 01+ leader for Passes into the Penalty Area based on total and per 90 metrics. This incredible output sees him rank in the 98th percentile for Progressive Passes within our group of 364 players. However, for PrgP-PPA, he drops to the 65th percentile. It’s still good, but it changes the discourse around his style: more penetrative, less progressive.
Another good case study is Pavlović. At face value, he looks like the most Progressive Passer. Within our top 10, he ranks first for Passes Completed, Passes into Final Third, Progressive Passing Distance and PrgP-PPA.
Based on this output combined with my perception of him as a player, I was expecting to see him rank much higher for Progressive Distance per Pass. Instead, he is closer to Olise than Wharton. This requires extra thought.
Pavlović is completing more passes per 90 than any other player in our database and at least 19 more than any player in this top 10 - that will obviously have an effect.
At the same time, although team style, player instructions and more would have to be considered, it is interesting to see that while his 12.2 Passes into the Final Third per 90 is at least 3 more than any other player in the database, Pedri averages the same % of Passes into the Final Third, while Adam Wharton has an even greater share. This presents another question: is it more useful to identify Progressive Passers based on this percentage share?
Personally, I think Wharton’s output is the best match for the shared consciousness of a Progressive Passer.
Remember, to even appear in this mini table, you need to rank in the top 13 for Progressive Passes per 90 - Wharton ranks third. The fact that he ranks first in this group for Progressive Distance per Pass and for Percentage of Passes as PrgP-PPA are two huge ticks.
Another reminder, all FBref metrics are based on successful passes - these are not hopeful pings into an area. These passes are finding teammates.
In our database of 364 outfield players born in 2001 or later with 450+ minutes across Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season, only two rank in the 85th percentile and above for Progressive Passes, Percentage of Passes as Progressive Passes and Progressive Yards per Pass:
🏴 Adam Wharton (2004, Crystal Palace)
🇪🇸 Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)
If we exclude Passes into the Penalty Area, Adam Wharton stands alone.
We already know about Adam Wharton… show us some other players!
Well, if we consider that Percentage of Passes as Progressive Passes could be influenced by style of play, removing that presents some interesting names. In our database, only five rank in the 85th percentile and above for PrgP-PPA and Progressive Yards per Pass:
🇧🇷 Lucas Beraldo (2003, Paris Saint-Germain)
🇪🇸 Pau Cubarsí (2007, Barcelona)
🏴 Lewis Hall (2004, Chelsea)
🏴 Adam Wharton (2004, Crystal Palace)
🇪🇸 Adrián Bernabé (2001, Parma)
Of course, Wharton is back. And although you may have expected to see Pau Cubarsí at some point, Lucas Beraldo continues to fly under the radar.
If we increase the threshold to 90th percentile and above, only Lewis Hall and Adrián Bernabé remain. Hall’s quest to become England’s first-choice left-back is gathering more momentum each week and I have discussed his claim in a previous newsletter.
Bernabé, however, is a name that I have yet to mention. The fact he spent four years at La Masia and another three in Manchester City’s academy suggests I should not be surprised.
But then you realise 2024/25 is the first top-flight season of his career having spent the last three in Serie B with Parma. A gold-medal winner with Spain in the summer, he is officially One To Watch. Of course, told you that two years ago.
All of this is to say that my advice when using and sharing data, no matter how simple or complex, is to read all of the definitions and to show an awareness of them.
The January transfer window is coming and there will be a lot of green-bar scouting as people scramble to learn more about a player their club has been linked with, or in search of copium to rationalise a record-breaking move.
All of that is absolutely fine, it’s part of the fun. Just make sure you know what the green bars really mean.
SCOUTED Stats
As this will be the final MNS of 2024, I decided that I would provide a complete run-down of the 2024/24 SCOUTED stat leaders across Europe’s Big Five Leagues, breaking down each metric into:
Season: outfield players born in the year 2001 or later; ties decided by the fewest minutes played
Per 90: outfield players born in the year 2001 or later with at least five 90s; ties decided by the most minutes played
Match: outfield players under the age of 23 on the day - in the result of a tie, the youngest player is listed
I will also add some notes if any players made a late entry to provide some context on this weekend’s football.
Goals + Assists
Season: 17 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 1.1 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Match: Cole Palmer (22-111, Chelsea, vs. Wolves)
Only six 01+ players are averaging 1+ G/A per 90 in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season: Cole Palmer, Jhon Durán, Bradley Barcola, Bukayo Saka, Lamine Yamal and Hugo Ekitiké. What a list.
Goals
Season: 11 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 1.1 - Jhon Durán (2003, Aston Villa)
Match: 4 - Cole Palmer (22-145, Chelsea, vs. Brighton)
Non-penalty Goals
Season: 10 - Bradley Barcola (2002, Paris Saint-Germain)
Per 90: 1.1 - Jhon Durán (2003, Aston Villa)
Match: 3 - Cole Palmer (22-145, Chelsea, vs. Brighton)
Expected Goals (xG)
Season: 10.3 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 0.9 - Elye Wahi (2003, Marseille)
Match: 2.4 - Enzo Millot (22-045, VfB Stuttgart, vs. Mainz 05)
Non-penalty Expected Goals (NPxG)
Season: 8.5 - Nicolas Jackson (2001, Chelsea)
Per 90: 0.7 - Bradley Barcola (2002, Paris Saint-Germain)
Match: 2.4 - Enzo Millot (22-045, VfB Stuttgart, vs. Mainz 05)
Assists
Season: 10 - Bukayo Saka (2001, Arsenal)
Per 90: 0.7 - Bukayo Saka (2001, Arsenal)
Match: 3 - Cole Palmer (22-111, Chelsea, vs. Wolves)
Expected Assisted Goals (xAG)
Season: 6.7 - Lamine Yamal (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 0.5 - Lamine Yamal (2007, Barcelona)
Match: 1.4 - Cole Palmer (22-145, Chelsea, vs. Brighton)
Expected Assists (xA)
Season: 6.1 - Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)
Per 90: 0.6 - Rayan Cherki (2003, Olympique Lyonnais)
Match: 1.4 - Michael Olise (22-284, Bayern München, vs. Werder Bremen)
xG + xAG
Season: 16.2 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 1.1 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Match: 3.8 - Cole Palmer (22-145, Chelsea, vs. Brighton)
NPxG + xAG
Season: 13.9 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 1.1 - Bradley Barcola (2002, Paris Saint-Germain)
Match: 3.0 - Cole Palmer (22-145, Chelsea, vs. Brighton)
Shot-Creating Actions (SCA)
Season: 89 - Bukayo Saka (2001, Arsenal)
Per 90: 9.0 - Lazar Samardžić (2002, Atalanta)
Match: 13 - Lamine Yamal (17-045, Barcelona, vs. Rayo Vallecano)
In Nottingham Forest’s 2-1 win against Aston Villa, Elliot Anderson recorded 12 SCAs, the most by an 01+ player in a Premier League game so far this season. He continues to impress.
SCA (Shot)
Season: 10 - Cole Palmer (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 0.9 - Lazar Samardžić (2002, Atalanta)
Match: 3 - Elliot Anderson (21-350, Nottingham Forest, vs. Crystal Palace)
SCA (Take-on)
Season: 16 - Jamie Gittens (2004, Borussia Dortmund)
Per 90: 1.6 - Jamie Gittens (2004, Borussia Dortmund)
Match: 5 - Jamal Musiala (21-270, Bayern München, vs. Augsburg)
SCA (Fouls Drawn)
Season: 9 - Patric Dorgu (2004, Lecce)
Per 90: 0.9 - Ilias Akhomach (2004, Villarreal)
Match:
SCA (Defensive Actions)
Season: 4 - Max Beier (2002, Borussia Dortmund)
Per 90: 0.5 - Max Beier (2002, Borussia Dortmund)
Match:
SCA (Live-ball Passes)
Season: 60 - Florian Wirtz (2003, Bayer Leverkusen)
Per 90: 5.7 - Lazar Samardžić (2002, Atalanta)
Match: 10 - Amad Diallo (22-065, Manchester United, vs. Southampton)
SCA (Dead-ball Passes)
Season: 22 - Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)
Per 90: 1.8 - Lazar Samardžić (2002, Atalanta)
Match: Valentín Barco (20-040, Sevilla, vs. Girona)
Shots
Season: 54 - Lamine Yamal (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 4.8 - Jhon Durán (2003, Aston Villa)
Match: 10 - Jamal Musiala (21-270, Bayern München, vs. Augsburg)
Shots On Target
Season: 21 - Noni Madueke (2002, Chelsea)
Per 90: 2.2 - Jhon Durán (2003, Aston Villa)
Match: 6 - Jamal Musiala (21-270, Bayern München, vs. Augsburg)
Key Passes
Season: 50 - Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)
Per 90: 3.8 - Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)
Match: 8 - Nico Paz (20-060, Como, vs. Genoa)
Passes Completed
Season: 1256 - Pau Cubarsí (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 96.1 - Aleksandar Pavlović (2004, Bayern München)
Match: 136 - Willian Pacho (22-341, Paris Saint-Germain, vs. Reims)
Long Passes Completed
Season: 105 - Pau Cubarsí (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 8.0 - Hugo Sotelo (2003, Celta Vigo)
Match: 21 - Isaak Touré (21-242, Udinese, vs. Empoli)
Passes Into Final Third
Season: 117 - Pedri (2002, Barcelona)
Per 90: 12.2 - Aleksandar Pavlović (2004, Bayern München)
Match: 22 - Marc Casadó (21-092, Barcelona, vs. Leganés)
In the 0-1 defeat to Leganés, both Casadó and Pedri completed 20+ passes into the final third. Before this weekend, the record was 17 (Arnau Martínez).
Passes Into Penalty Area
Season: 40 - Michael Olise (2001, Bayern München)
Per 90: 4.2 - Michael Olise (2001, Bayern München)
Match: 8 - Yaser Asprilla (20-322, Girona, vs. Athletic Club)
Progressive Passes
Season: 126 - Pedri (2002, Barcelona)
Per 90: 9.2 - Rayan Cherki (2003, Olympique Lyonnais)
Match: 30 - Joško Gvardiol (22-271, Manchester City, vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Progressive Passes Received
Season: 193 - Bukayo Saka (2001, Arsenal)
Per 90: 17.3 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Match: 29 - Jérémy Doku (22-146, Manchester City, vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Successful Through-balls
Season: 13 - Lamine Yamal (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 1.2 - Xavi Simons (2003, RB Leipzig)
Match: 4 - João Neves (19-331, Paris Saint-Germain, vs. Montpellier)
Crosses
Season: 97 - Bukayo Saka (2001, Arsenal)
Per 90: 7.2 - Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)
Match: 13 - Sávio (20-193, Manchester City, vs. Wolves)
Carries
Season: 910 - Pau Cubarsí (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 66.9 - Aleksandar Pavlović (2004, Bayern München)
Match: 105 - Joško Gvardiol (22-271, Manchester City, vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Progressive Carries
Season: 88 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Per 90: 12.8 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Match: 18 - Jérémy Doku (22-83, Manchester City, vs. Chelsea)
Carries Into Final Third
Season: 52 - Eliesse Ben Seghir (2005, AS Monaco)
Per 90: 6.0 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Match: 14 - Jérémy Doku (22-83, Manchester City, vs. Chelsea)
Carries Into Penalty Area
Season: 50 - Bradley Barcola (2002, Paris Saint-Germain)
Per 90: 5.8 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Match: 10 - Sávio (20-199, Manchester City, vs. Southampton)
Successful Take-ons
Season: 51 - Lamine Yamal (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 5.7 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Match: 12 - Abdul Fatawu (20-247, Leicester City, vs. Manchester United)
Fouls Drawn
Season: 47 - Dilane Bakwa (2002, RC Strasbourg)
Per 90: 3.9 - Eliesse Ben Seghir (2005, AS Monaco)
Match: 9 - Chrisantus Uche (21-132, Getafe, vs. Alavés)
Touches
Season: 1445 - Pau Cubarsí (2007, Barcelona)
Per 90: 110.0 - Aleksandar Pavlović (2004, Bayern München)
Match: 149 - Willian Pacho (22-341, Paris Saint-Germain, vs. Reims)
Touches In Final Third
Season: 649 - Florian Wirtz (2003, Bayer Leverkusen)
Per 90: 52.5 - Florian Wirtz (2003, Bayer Leverkusen)
Match: 89 - Florian Wirtz (21-155, Bayer 04 Leverkusen, vs. Holstein Kiel)
Touches In Attacking Penalty Area
Season: 115 - Bukayo Saka (2001, Arsenal)
Per 90: 9.2 - Jérémy Doku (2002, Manchester City)
Match: 17 - Sávio (20-199, Manchester City, vs. Southampton)
Tackles Made
Season: 55 - Morten Frendrup (2001, Genoa)
Per 90: 4.8 - Tom Bischof (2005, Hoffenheim)
Match: 12 - Tom Bischof (19-156, Hoffenheim, vs. Mainz 05)
Interceptions
Season: 36 - Carmona (2002, Sevilla)
Per 90: 3.3 - Rocco Reitz (2002, Gladbach)
Match: 7 - Yarek Gasiorowski (19-330, Valencia, vs. Rayo Vallecano)
Tackles + Interceptions
Season: 77 - Carmona (2002, Sevilla)
Per 90: 6.4 - Rocco Reitz (2002, Gladbach)
Match: 13 - Tom Bischof (19-156, Hoffenheim, vs. Mainz 05)
Clearances
Season: 93 - Murillo (2002, Nottingham Forest)
Per 90: 7.7 - Nathan Zézé (2005, FC Nantes)
Match: 18 - Etienne Youte Kinkoue (22-315, Le Havre, vs. FC Nantes)
Shoutout here to
who messaged me about Abdulai Juma Bah. The 2006-born centre-back ranks second for clearances per 90. Also, in Valladolid’s most recent game against Valencia, the Sierra Leonean made 14 clearances, the third-most by an U23 player in a single game this season.Aerial Duels Won
Season: 57 - Nathan Collins (2001, Brentford)
Per 90: 8.6 - Álvaro Rodríguez (2004, Getafe)
Match: 12 - Koni De Winter (22-081, Genoa, vs. Hellas Verona)
Ball Recoveries
Season: 105 - Pedri (2002, Barcelona)
Per 90: 7.5 - Vanderson (2001, AS Monaco)
Match: 13 - Amadou Koné (19-214, Reims, vs. Monaco)
MNS ultras will recognise the name Amadou Koné. The 19-year-old appeared in our recent search for Mousa Dembélé regens.
In Reims 0-0 draw with Monaco, the Malian equalled the U23 single-game record for Ball Recoveries this season. The last teenager to record 13+ in a Big Five European League game was Soungoutou Magassa (15 in August 2023), who started in midfield against Koné at the weekend.
In addition to his 13 Ball Recoveries, Koné also made 7 tackles, won 7 fouls, made 4 clearances, 2 interceptions and completed 2 take-ons. The only other U23 player to make 7+ tackles and win 7+ fouls in a Big Five European League game this season is Dário Essugo. And that also happened this weekend.
Can I shock you? Essugo was my Eye Test pick for the Mousa Dembélé 3.0 section.
I am going to make the not-so-bold prediction that these two teenagers will be subject to plenty of transfer interest in 2025. Remember where you saw their names first.
That’s a wrap.
I would like to say a massive thank you to everyone that has read Monday Night SCOUTED this year.
The decision to quit my job and commit to SCOUTED was a big one and not taken lightly. But writing these articles every week has been an absolute joy. The positive feedback and kind messages you have sent mean the world and are beginning to erode the imposter syndrome.
There are a few more bits to come from SCOUTED in 2024, but I hope you all have a fantastic end to the year. Bring on 2025.
Jake
ICYMI at SCOUTED:
Last week’s Monday Night SCOUTED looked at the staggering stats behind BlueCo’s billion-pound youth revolution
Llew and I covered the final round of the UEFA Youth League League Phase, featuring a Celtic player that I hope will feature in future discussions about the next generation of Progressive Passers
The SCOUTED 50 2024/25 Power Rankings update has been pushed back until the new year to give us time to provide our first SCOUTED Team of the Year
Stay tuned.
Superb, thought-provoking piece
Great article. Enjoyed it. Merry Christmas and happy New year 🎊