Levi Colwill's perfect partner, a jumbo (Eintracht) Frankfurter, and SCOUTED stats

Monday Night SCOUTED: the only cure for football is more football.

This sport is a cruel mistress. On Sunday, I lost an 11-a-side game. We played the entire match with 10 men. Despite that, we went 3-0 up at half-time. In the second half, fatigue led to a loss of composure and a loss on paper: 3-4. As you can tell, it’s still playing on my mind.

I then watched Arsenal (I imagine you know that is the club I support by now) go 1-2 up against a team that has not lost at home since December 2022, only for them to be reduced to 10 men and concede a 90+8’ equaliser. As you can tell, that is also playing on my mind.

But I found the only remedy for this football-induced sadness was more football. I cleared my mind by reviewing my weekend notes, booting up Stathead, and rambling until I can ramble no more about what I spotted and the tangents that sprouted from them.

And I am only scratching the surface. This is just the Big Five Leagues. Every time I challenge myself to look further, I am consumed by too many stats and stories. If you would like me to pay more attention to The Next 14 and beyond, let me know in the comments and I will dedicate some time to them.

For now…

All stats correct as of 23/09/2024 19:00 BST unless otherwise noted.

---

Jumbo Sausage Factory

In a recent SCOUTED epic, Stephen analysed three famous Striker Factories: Sturm Graz, Partizan Belgrade and KAA Gent. It is a fascinating read. And it’s free.

Although Stephen’s piece focussed on how clubs outside of Europe’s elite turn to striker development as a source of sustainable, lucrative income, there are plenty of examples within the Big Five Leagues. The particular factory that I want to focus on is Eintracht Frankfurt.

---

The Striker Factories

---

Before 2017/18, Die Adler had not won a trophy since 1988, qualifying for Europe just twice in the 21st century. Since the start of that season, by mastering the identification and development of two striker profiles, they have won two trophies - the 2018 DFB-Pokal and the 2022 UEFA Europa League - and have embarked on six UEFA club competition campaigns. The five forwards that played a huge part in that sustained success were signed for a combined total of €36m. They were sold for more than €230m.

The 3-5-2 system introduced by Niko Kovač at the start of 2017/18 and further developed by Adi Hütter in 2018/19 required the construction of two production lines. After all, every little man needs a big man.

Luka Jović initially joined on a two-year loan deal before signing permanently for €22m. He was sold to Real Madrid for €60m after two seasons in Germany. André Silva was signed as his replacement and followed a similar pattern. An initial loan deal was made permanent, this time, for just €3m. After 28 goals in 32 games during his second season, he was sold for €23m to RB Leipzig. Two stocky poachers, reared and sold for massive profit.

Rafael Santos Borré was signed on a free transfer to replace Silva. Although not as prolific as his predecessors, the Colombian scored the equaliser against Rangers in the 2021/22 UEFA Europa League final before Eintracht went on to win the penalty shootout. After a loan to Werder Bremen for the 2023/24 season, he was sold to Internacional for €6.5m. More profit.

For their jumbo forwards, the Frankfurters went French.

When Jović joined on his initial loan deal in 2017/18, so did a 190 cm Sébastien Haller. A €12m signing for FC Utrecht turned into 33 goals in 77 appearances and a €50m sale to West Ham United ahead of the 2019/20 season.

Bas Dost reprised the target man role for André Silva’s first season before Eintracht’s system shifted into a 3-4-2-1 rather than a 3-4-1-2, focussing on one type of forward. As mentioned, the Portuguese was prolific and his poacher profile was replaced by Borré in 2021/22.

The following season saw the return of a jumbo Frenchman up top. This time, a complete centre-forward. The 187 cm Randal Kolo Muani was signed for absolutely nothing from FC Nantes. In his one and only Bundesliga season, he scored 15 goals and provided 11 assists. PSG signed him for €95m.

So what did Eintracht Frankfurt do? They signed an even bigger Frenchman. After joining on an initial loan deal in February 2024, it took just two months for Hugo Ekitike’s move from PSG to be made permanent. So far in 2024/25, the 190cm forward has made the €16.5m fee look like a bargain.

Across Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season, only five players with at least 180 minutes played are averaging 2.5 shots, 2.5 key passes and 2.5 successful take-ons per 90 this season: Lamine Yamal, Vinícius Júnior, Florian Wirtz, Ousmane Dembélé and Hugo Ekitike. Ekitike is the only player in that list operating exclusively as a striker.

Although his most recent display against Gladbach was not his most productive performance of the season, it still flaunted his complete skillset. In 77 minutes, Ekitike cracked off four shots with an average distance of 9.5 yards, generating a Non-Penalty xG value of 1.4. He also attempted six take-ons and embarked on five Progressive Carries. He even made two clearances and two interceptions.

A list of players in Europe’s Big Five Leagues with 180+ minutes played averaging 2.5 shots, 2.5 key passes and 2.5 successful take-ons per 90 minutes. Screenshot via Stathead FBref.

Again, the point I have tried to make - or rather re-make given Stephen’s piece - is that identifying a profile, mastering the development of that archetype and succession planning for it will not only reap benefits on the pitch, but it can generate huge wealth off it. In signing Ekitike and providing him with the perfect environment to flourish - partnering with Omar Marmoush, a free transfer from VfL Wolfsburg last season - Eintracht Frankfurt have proven their status once again as a bona fide Striker Factory.

As a bit of fun, I would love to hear your predictions for the next French Jumbo Forward they will will sign after selling Ekitike is sold for 500% profit. My pick is Ange-Yoan Bonny.

Iconic Duos

Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba are considered one of the best, if not the best, centre-back pairing in the world.

The debate has been rumbling on since Arsenal’s 1-0 win the the north London derby. It reached a crescendo following another goal and Player of the Match trophy for Gabriel against Manchester City as premature discussions about their standing amongst the all-time Premier League great partnerships has started. Without spending too much time of this pair in particular, the reason they have entered this conversation is due to social media sensationalism how well they complement each other.

Michael Cox used a dog and cat analogy to praise the Söyüncü-Evans partnership at Leicester City in 2020. As the game has developed, it is not just the approach to defending that needs to be balanced within a pair. Ball progression has become increasingly important, especially for the most dominant sides, and the best centre-backs need to contribute in one way or another: either through passing or by carrying the ball.

To me, that means every centre-back duo should now cover three main areas: Duel Winning, Ball Progression, and Defensive Actions. Each main area can be split into sub-sections, which I feel like at least one player in the partnership should look to dominate. In some extreme cases, one player can rule them all. Yes, that’s Virgil van Dijk.

Based on watching this partnership a lot, here is how I have split the Gabriel-Saliba partnership.

Possession

• Gabriel = Passing

• Saliba = Carrying

Duels

• Gabriel = Aerial

• Saliba = Ground

Defending

• Gabriel = Clearances, Blocks, Interceptions

• Saliba = Recoveries

Gabriel is a front-foot, aggressive defender. He is a monster aerial presenece in both boxes and a magnet for blocking shots and making clearances. With the ball, he prefers longer, punchy passes or clips forward. Saliba is a cerebral sweeper. He is almost-impossible to dribble past, gobbles up loose balls, devours open space and makes box-office last-man tackles. In possession, he loves a buccaneering carry and is a more metronomic passer. Gabriel is the Air Force, Saliba is the One-Man Army.

If I was clever, I would have been able to present a data visualisation that I have be developing in my head. It involves potential Venn diagram malpractice, percentile rankings and it will be called The Du-O-Meter. Alas, I do not have the skills to create this beyond this concept.

I am not a data scientist so this could make no sense. In my head, the idea would be to plot both players based on their percentile ranking for each metric. The bright green circle where the metrics cross represents the 95th percentile and above. The ‘goal’ would be to have at least one in the middle for each metric - like the fake Gabriel-Saliba Duels example. At the end of the report, if at least one defender appeared in (or close to) the middle for each metric, it would suggest an element of balance between your centre-backs. Or at the very least that you have all bases covered. You can laugh at this if you like.

But, Jake, is there a point to all of this nonsense?

Yes. Against West Ham, Levi Colwill did this.

Levi Colwill completes a line-breaking, screen-stretching pass into Nicolas Jackson’s feet against West Ham United

In truth, it is one pass in a career catalogue of gasp-inducing line-breakers. But this particular pass punctuated an elite individual display that started turning my the cogs in my head.

Levi Colwill has the potential to become a world-class centre-back. But do Chelsea have the perfect partner for him?

Let’s revisit those three key pillars from earlier.

In terms of Progression, Colwill is already elite. He has covered more Progressive Passing Distance than any U23 player in the Premier League this season. The only outfield players that can better his 2,611 yards are Jan Paul van Hecke (2,934) and Virgil van Dijk (2,869).

I imagine JPVH and VVD would be off the scales on the imaginary Duo-O-Meter. Throw in Micky van de Ven as a LB/CB hybrid and the Netherlands are laughing.

When looking at Progressive Carrying Distance, Sávio (728), Ryan Gravenberch (756) and Jérémy Doku (866) are the only U23 players that can better Colwill’s 707 yards. When compared all Premier League centre-backs, Colwill ranks 8th in total this season.

In a potential partnership, Colwill could realistically tick both boxes for Progression. However, I would encourage him to index further into his passing. That means when scouting potential partners, we would need to look at ball-carrying.

Before I go any further, I appreciate team styles, possession adjustment and further considerations need to be taken into account before matching up two players on paper - Stephen again covers that expertly in another analytical epic - but for the purpose of Monday Night SCOUTED musings, this process represents the very first step: creating a shortlist for future interrogation.

When looking at duels, Colwill is again impressive in both areas. In his Premier League career, he has won 68.8% of his aerials and successfully tackled 66.7% of opposition dribblers. Based on my personal opinion, I would be looking to support Colwill’s ground game. During his loan spell at Brighton, his ground duel success rate dropped to 53% yet he maintained a 71% win rate in aerial duels. This season, despite the much smaller sample size, the same disparity has returned (47% ground success, 61% aerial success).

Finally, the most difficult section: Defending. This is where the aforementioned possession and style adjustments are needed the most. Colwill consistently blocks shots and makes clearances - an indicator of good positioning but not 100% evidence of it - and although his output and approach during his left-back minutes may paint him as a front-footed defender, I feel he would benefit from delegating the aggressive metrics to his partner.

Boiling this down to an over-simplified metric split, I would want to build the following. For Progression, Colwill will take charge of Progressive Passes and his partner can lean into Progressive Carries. For Duels, Colwill will patrol the skies and his other half will dominate on the floor. For Defending, Colwill would lead Clearances, Blocks and Recoveries while his partner would pick up the Tackles via the Ground Duel focus and add on Interceptions.

So far this season, Colwill has played alongside either Wesley Fofana or Tosin Adarabioyo. Here are each player’s per 90 output for the metrics we are looking for during the 2022/23 Premier League season.

• Progressive Carries: Fofana (2.11), Tosin (0.69)

• Ground Duel Success: Fofana (66%), Tosin (58%)

• Tackles: Fofana (2.25), Tosin (1.3)

• Interceptions: Fofana (1.9), Tosin (1.12)

So, on paper at least, it seems as if the answer is yes: Chelsea do have the perfect centre-back partner for Levil Colwill.

It remains to be see whether Fofana will return to his pre-injury levels - the early signs are promising - but I am excited to see how this partnership develops. As for Tosin, I feel like he provides better cover for Colwill’s skillset. But, as the game against West Ham showed, he can step-up as an accomplished partner when necessary.

Who do you think should be Chelsea’s first-choice centre-back pairing?

SCOUTED Stats

Thank you for indulging me. Here are the numbers you have been waiting for.

• Unless stated, all ‘single-game records’ below refer to the highest match tally recorded by a player under the age of 23 in a Big Five European League game in 2024/25. I will highlight if the record goes back further or if it applies to all age groups.

• Season totals include all players born in the year 2001 or later, the shorthand will be 01+. This is a slight adjustment from previous editions after running into a small obstacle. When taking a screenshot of FBref tables using the age criteria, it showed the players’ age at the start of the season. To avoid confusion and constantly explanation, using and displaying the year of birth is the best option.

Let’s begin.

Monday Night SCOUTED would not be possible without an annual subscription to Stathead. That is why we are delighted to announce that SCOUTED are now official Brand Ambassadors of FBref.

That means you can get 20% off the annual subscription when you sign up and use the code ‘SCOUTED’. Then you can do all of your own stat searches…

Florian Wirtz generated 12 Shot-Creating Actions in Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s 4-3 win against Wolfsburg; just one short of Lamine Yamal’s record of 13. However, it does make these two level on 37 SCAs each for the season. In the same game, Wirtz also set the record for Successful Take-ons (10 - the first double-digit haul), Progressive Passes (16), Touches in the Attacking Third (70), and equalled the record for Passes into the Penalty Area - more on that later.

Progressive Passes: Completed passes that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area.

Successful Take-Ons: Number of defenders taken on successfully, by dribbling past them. Unsuccessful take-ons include attempts where the dribbler retained possession but was unable to get past the defender.

---

I still cannot get over the fact Bayern have both Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise. These two destroyed Werder Bremen at the weekend.

Olise scored 2 Goals and provided 2 Assists, equalling Cole Palmer’s single game record for G/A and becoming the first player of any age to bag a brace of each in a single match this season. He also completed 7 Key Passes, breaking the single-game record for that metric, and completed 7 Passes into the Penalty Area, which is a shared record with Wirtz and Amad Diallo.

Key Passes: Passes that directly lead to a shot (assisted shots).

Passes into the Penalty Area: Completed passes into the 18-yard box. Not including set pieces.

As for Musiala, he attempted a record-breaking 9 Shots and recorded 14 Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area; Sávio is the only U23 player to record more in a single game (15 vs. Brentford). It’s not fair.

---

Moisés Caicedo caught the eye with eight tackles against West Ham. But that tally is one short of Tim Iroegbunam’s record. However, Caicedo did set the record for Tackles in the Defensive Third (7).

---

Continuing the centre-back theme from earlier, Murillo would have Clearances covered. The Brazilian smashed the record with 15 in Nottingham Forest’s 2-2 draw against Brighton. It’s the second-highest tally recorded by a player of any age in a B5EL game this season, beaten only by Ardian Ismajli’s 17 for Empoli against Bologna at the end of August.

---

Finally, Lamine Yamal continued his streak of scoring or assisting in every league game so far this season (and even extended it to all competitions with a goal against Monaco in the UEFA Champions League).

Yamal leads the way for all players born in 2001 or later for EB5L Goals + Assists with 8. Across all age groups, only Erling Haaland (10) and Harry Kane (9) can beat him.

I realise these newsletters are getting longer and longer. Is that good or bad? I have been thinking about delivering SCOUTED Stats as a separate newsletter on Tuesday morning - this will allow any standout Monday night displays to be included - and leaving the longer-form Monday Night SCOUTED analysis to stand on its own. If you enjoy reading, I would love to know what you think.

Either way, I will be back next Monday.

Also, if you are going to the Arsenal vs. Bolton game in the EFL Cup and want to have a pre-match football chat, please reach out.

Jake

---

Get Monday Night SCOUTED in your inbox, every week, by subscribing below.

And if you enjoyed this, leave a like — that’s probably the easiest way to support what we do. More likes mean more algorithmic nonsense that bumps us up the charts and gets more eyes on. Do it. We would greatly appreciate if you did.