Club football is back. So is Monday Night SCOUTED.
My weekend began by sitting down to watch Paul Wanner on Friday night. Unfortunately, Dortmund decided not to let him touch the ball. What I will say is that Wanner runs like Robin van Persie: his arms completely bent and tucked up into his armpits, almost as if he’s doing a half-hearted chicken impression.
Fortunately, this weekend served up some spectacular SCOUTED-approveddisplays, one of which led me to disappearing into a Durán-inspired rabbit hole.
But first, some right-wing propaganda. The good kind.
All stats correct as of 16/09/2024 19:00 BST unless otherwise noted.
On Saturday, at 18 years and 186 days old, Tyler Dibling became the youngest player to start a Premier League game for Southampton since Kayne Ramsey in December 2018 against Manchester City. He tormented Diogo Dalot in the first half, winning the most fouls on the pitch, including the now-infamous penalty. Dibling’s low socks and tiny shin pads were the red cape, Dalot was the bull.
The teenager’s stop-start dribbling baited the Portuguese into challenges, only for the Southampton academy graduate to glide past with a smooth gust of acceleration. Dalot’s aggressive defending silenced the unapologetically direct style of Yankuba Minteh before the international break. At St Mary’s, he was undone by this more cerebral approach.
However, there was a moment in the second half in which this battle became a stat check for speed and strength; Dalot won this comfortably. But there is plenty of time for Dibling to build size and speed. It was an extremely promising full Premier League debut, Southampton’s right-winger was by far their brightest attacking talent on the day.
As was United’s.
Amad Diallo registered game-high tallies for Carrying Distance (300 yards), Progressive Carrying Distance (187 yards), Progressive Carries (13), Carries into the Final Third (6), Carries into the Penalty Area (6) and Progressive Passes Received (21). He embarked on at least nine more Progressive Carries than any other player on the pitch and received at least 14 more Progressive Passes. He became the only player to register 6+ Carries into the Final Third and 6+ Carries into the Penalty Area in a single Premier League game this season. The previous three instances of this happening all belong to Jérémy Doku.
And that’s still not the best part… (you know which metric I am going to mention next).
Amad generated 10 Shot-Creating Actions against Southampton, the most by a player under the age of 23 in a single Premier League game in 2024/25. The only other U23 player to generate 10+ SCAs in a Big Five European League game this season is Lamine Yamal.
In a United context, only two U23 players on the Stathead database (since 2017/18) have generated 10+ SCAs for the club in a Premier League game: a 21-year-old Marcus Rashford against Huddersfield in May 2019 and a 19-year-old Alejandro Garnacho against Burnley in April 2024.
At their best, Erik ten Hag has three game-breaking talents to deploy in wide areas. Right now, Amad is the pick of the bunch. Rashford and Garnacho should be competing for the left-wing spot.
Sharpshooters
Some players laugh in the face of Expected Goals.
Full disclosure: I think the metric is extremely useful and refer to it often. But I also understand that technique and player quality can make a mockery of it in certain individual cases. You should not dismiss it. You should not live and die by it. Use it to spot anomalies and patterns and then investigate the ‘why?’.
For example, if I spotted a player racking up incredible xG per 90 or posting gaping xG-Goal difference tallies, I would drop both names in the SCOUTED chat to see if the analysts have seen them before (the answer is usually yes). Then, the reasons why each outlier might exist would dictate whether I decide to track them further and watch more games.
With that out of the way…
Fucking hell, Jhon.
As per Stathead, Jhon Durán has averages more Non-Penalty Goals per 90 than any player in Premier League history with at least 450 minutes played. Yes, even more than Erling Haaland.
Of course, the sample size is very small - he has only started three PL games in his career - but this is your reminder that he is only 20 years old.
I repeat: Fucking hell, Jhon.
One of this reasons for this incredible scoring rate is a catalogue of xG-busting goals. Since the start of 2017/18 - the season that Stathead’s xG coverage begins - Durán ranks first for Non-Penalty Goals minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90; he is outperforming his NPxG tally by 0.6 per 90 minutes, more than doubling his expected output. In total, Durán has scored 8 NPG from 3.6 NPxG.
There are two other metrics that highlight his anomalous goal-scoring: Non-Penalty xG per Shot (NPxG/Shot) and Average Shot Distance.
Edinson Cavani ranks first for for NPxG/Shot among all Premier League players with at least 30 shots since the 2017/18 season. El Matador averaged 0.22 NPxG per effort, a testament to the world-class movement that defined his career. Haaland ranks joint-second with 0.20 NPxG/Shot, alongside Ramus Højlund and Taiwo Awoniyi.
Just quickly, I want to use this moment to introduce an example of the nuance needed to interrogate these outliers - and this can be done before even watching the player. Just as lots of shots does not always result in lots of goal, high NPxG/Shot on its own does not make a world-class striker.
Haaland averages 3.9 shots per 90. Consider that alongside 0.20 NPxG/Shot and it’s easy to see why he broke Wayne Rooney’s record for the most goals scored after the opening four games of a Premier League season. Haaland has quality and quantity.
Cavani averaged 2.2 during his time at United, Awoniyi averages 2.1 and Højlund is averaging 1.6;. So, despite the fact Højlund is taking good shots, he is getting fewer opportunities to do so. That’s why missing these chances became so poignant.
While Haaland can afford to miss a chance safe in the knowledge at least two more will be on the way, Højlund was often only presented with one. Whether this lower shot volume is as a result of player or team quality is another question for another time.
I can feel this is getting quite heavy so please do let me know if it’s too much for a Monday Night. Alternatively, if you want to discuss any of it further - reach out!
So, although all four players take “good” shots, they don’t all get lots of them.
Back to Durán.
The Colombian averages 0.10 NPxG/Shot, ranking him 91st in this list. This is further highlighted by Haaland’s average shot distance of 12.4 yards (pretty much the penalty spot) compared to Durán’s 16.7 yards - similar to Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka.
So, how is he top of the Premier League’s all-time Non-Penalty Goal-scoring charts?
Well, to speak quickly on volume, he’s taking 4.4 shots every 90 minutes he spends on the pitch. He’s buying plenty of lottery tickets.
And while his shot locations are improving, his shot placement can be fantastic. The secret to this? Ball-striking.
This attribute is often highlighted and discussed at SCOUTED. It features in Stephen’s excellent piece about the Project Nine. Conveniently, Durán was subject to transfer interest of that exact nature in the summer as Chelsea and West Ham battled for his signature.
A metric used to help unearth these ball-striking phenoms is Non-Penalty Expected Goals On Target (NPxGOT) minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals. Opta coined the difference between their xG and xGOT values as Shooting Goals Added (SGA). You can read more about it here. xGOT is always used to calculate ‘Goals Prevented’ for goalkeepers.
Essentially, this measures how likely a shot will go in based on where it is when it crosses the line, rather than the location it is taken from. Pre-shot vs. Post-shot.
“Stats Perform’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model is calculated using a logistic regression model. It is built on hundreds of thousands of on-target shots from our historical Opta data and includes both the original xG of the shot and the goalmouth location of where the shot ended up.
“The coordinates are taken at the point at which the shot was expected to cross the goal line to determine the goalmouth location of the shot and the interaction effect between the visible angle of the goal and the point that it crossed the line.”
Callum Hudson-Odoi is an excellent case study. Since 2018/19, he is at 4+ SGA in the league due to, for the most part, his ability to finesse the ball into the far corner with his eyes closed.
This has been Hudson-Odoi’s go-to finish ever since we started watching him in 2017 - and he can do it from both angles. So, while the average player may struggle to execute these low-xG efforts, or at least be better-served finding a pass, Hudson-Odoi has trained it as an automatism.
For him, in this position, shooting is the best option.
I was surprised to learn that Durán’s NPxG total (11.66) is almost-identical to his NPxG total (10.53) during his Premier League career. However, due to the small sample size, this is skewed by some extremely speculative shooting during 2022/23, even by his standard.
Looking at the past two seasons, Durán is adding 0.10 SGA per 90. Of his eight Premier League goals, seven have a positive SGA. This is what excites me the most. This is what I will keep a closer eye on.
Jhon Durán's first 8 Premier League goals, including the xG and xGOT value of each effort.
I wish I could continue but I know you are all waiting for the stats. I am also in danger of spending a disproportionately amount of time on an extremely small set of data.
TL;DR: Durán’s ability to kick the ball really nicely lots of times at the goal means he will continue score.
He won’t maintain the historic rate he is currently operating at, but there is enough quality and quantity to suggest he can keep up with the best.
SCOUTED Stats
Enough analysis. Enough rambling. Here are the big, fat, juicy numbers that will get you big, fat, juicy numbers on social media. Just remember to tell everyone where you saw them first.
Monday Night SCOUTED would not be possible without an annual subscription to Stathead. That is why we are delighted to announce that SCOUTED are now official Brand Ambassadors of FBref.
That means you can get 20% off the annual subscription when you sign up and use the code ‘SCOUTED’.
Then you can do all of your own stat searches…
In addition to all the bonkers Amad Diallo stats I mentioned earlier, he also completed seven passes into the opposition box, the outright most by an U-23 player in a B5L game this season. And he tied Florian Wirtz for the most key passes (6).
Only two players in Europe’s Big Five Leagues have scored or assisted in all four league games so far this season: Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal.
Yamal scored twice against Girona to take his 2024/25 output to three goals and four assists in 446 minutes. For context, he scored five goals and provided five assists in 2,200 LaLiga minutes in 2023/24.
As per Stathead, the most goals and assists in a European Big Five League season by a player starting the campaign aged 18 or younger is 28. Michael Owen started the 1997/98 Premier League season as a 17-year-old and finished it with 18 goals, 10 assists, and a share of the Golden Boot.
How far up this list will Yamal end up?
Sávio, another left-footed right-winger, set the record for most Carries into the Penalty Area. The Brazilian embarked on 8 against Brentford, a day after Abde Ezzalzouli had equalled Yankuba Minteh’s previous record of 7. Sávio also set an U-23 record for Touches in the Opposition Box in the same game (15).
Adam Wharton completed 15 progressive passes and 13 long passes against Leicester, both single-game record in the B5L this season. He may not have been at his best defensively, but never lose sight of his outrageous passing range. And yes, another left-footed.
Ethan Nwaneri became the second-youngest player to feature in a Premier League north London derby. In the competition’s history, Arsenal players are responsible for all five instances of a 17-year-old appearing in the fixture. Gavin McGowan remains the youngest player; Cesc Fàbregas remains the youngest starter. Oh, guess what Nwaneri’s preferred foot is?
That’s all for this week, thank you for reading. I’ll see you in seven more action-packed days - which includes the return of the UEFA Youth League.
Jake
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I had fun with this one. Which is probably why it is even longer than usual. I am prone to a shot-based rabbit hole so hope I came back up with at least a slightly coherent idea.
I had fun with this one. Which is probably why it is even longer than usual. I am prone to a shot-based rabbit hole so hope I came back up with at least a slightly coherent idea.