Finding the next big MLS sale
Finding the next big MLS sale
Picking out prospects for the league's new U-22 rules with SkillCorner.
Keeping track of Major League Soccer and the idiosyncrasies of its America-coded, parity-aimed sporting structure can be confusing to the unfamiliar.
General Allocation Money, salary caps, designated players, draft picks – American norms, ingrained in every major league or association in every major sport, are very different to pretty much every other sport across the world.
Last month, MLS owners voted on a series of changes to those rules that control the way squads (or rosters) are compiled, according to Paul Tenorio of The Athletic. It’s expected they will be implemented for the forthcoming summer transfer window, which swings opens next month.
The biggest and most interesting in regard to the future of a burgeoning league – and certainly from our SCOUTED perspective – is the alterations to the Designated Player and Under-22 Initiative rules.
I’ll let Paul explain these changes, because there’s no point rehashing it:
Currently, teams with three senior DPs can have just one U-22 player. Teams with two senior DPs and one young DP or a DP that can be bought down with targeted allocation money (TAM) can have up to three U-22 players.
Under the new rules, teams can have either three DPs and three U-22 players, or they can have two DPs and four U-22 players, plus $2 million in general allocation money (GAM).
The change offers greater flexibility to MLS teams building their rosters while also guaranteeing them six spots to use on typically more established talent (DPs) and rising prospects (U-22s).
Basically, as Paul summarises, these changes will allow MLS franchises greater flexibility in the way they build their squads. They can focus their spending on established stars, such as Sergio Busquets, or spread it out across younger prospects, like Federico Redondo.
But what does this have to do with SCOUTED? Well, we’re going to pick out some leagues and players that should be of interest to MLS this summer to make the most of the changes – and we’re utilising SkillCorner data to do it.
First things first, it’s important to note that MLS has been trending younger for some time. Gone are the days of it being the ‘Land of David Beckhams’, where post-peak European stars lurch for one last lucrative contract, lived out in the hills of Los Angeles or on the beaches of Miami. Those moves are still a thing – look at Lionel Messi and Mates – but it’s not just that, and never was.
Now, MLS is establishing itself as a legitimate league for up-and-coming prospects to take the next step in their careers.
Miguel Almirón is perhaps the most prominent example of a highly-rated emerging talent using the league as a stepping stone. Atlanta United fought off European suitors to snag him for €7.5 million in January 2017; they flipped him on to Newcastle United for a league record €24 million sale some 70 games, 40 goal contributions, an MLS Cup title and 18 months later.
Jhon Durán is a similar recent example: Chicago bought him from Colombian club Envigado for €1.7 million, played him, then sold him to Aston Villa for upwards of €17 million a year later. See also Đorđe Petrović, whom Chelsea signed from New England Revolution for €18 million last summer following his All-Star season – the MLS franchise got him from Serbia’s FK Čukarički for €900,000 a year prior.
Developing young players can make you a lot of money. Seven of the top ten MLS sales are young, non-native players that were signed from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Serbia.
MLS franchises are investing a lot of money to recruit some of the best emerging talent from around the world. This past off-season alone, the likes of David Martínez, Jovan Mijatović and Enes Sali have all made the move to America. Inter Miami have been particularly active in this market too, picking up Federico Redondo, Tomás Aviles, Facundo Farías and Diego Gómez since last summer to supplement Messi & Mates.
Why is this happening? Because, as with all things in football, success breeds imitators: franchises are seeing these profits and players are noticing these pathways.
In the case of the influx of South American prospects, the prevalence of Spanish-speaking communities in major US cities (and thus most MLS fan bases) is an important factor too, as is the relative proximity to their native nations and, of course, the temperate weather.
The future of MLS is bright, as long as these trends keep trending.
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Benchmarking the leagues
What we need to do first and foremost is set the athletic level of MLS against the leagues from which many franchises are now recruiting emerging U-22 talent. To do that, I’ll split them into two subsets: the South American competitions in the SkillCorner system and mid-tier European leagues.
South America:
🇦🇷 Primera División
🇧🇷 Série A
🇪🇨 Liga Pro
🇵🇾 División Profesional
🇵🇪 Primera División
Mid-tier Europe:
🇭🇷 1. HNL
🇨🇿 First League
🇩🇰 Superligaen
🇳🇴 Eliteserien
🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa
🇷🇴 Liga 1
🇷🇸 SuperLiga
🇸🇪 Allsvenskan
We’ll start with South America, from where MLS franchises are increasingly keen to sign young talent. Argentina’s Primera División and Brazil’s Série A account for the two-most non-domestic transfers to MLS this past year.
There’s a fairly substantial gap between MLS and the powerhouses of South American football and the rest when it comes to the intensity of games.
What immediately jumps out is the relative parity between the big South American leagues and MLS, which suggests your average performers in those leagues should translate well to the US game – and that would ring true based off anecdotal evidence.
Flip that to the mid-tier European leagues subset – which incorporates Scandinavia, as well as a big chunk of the eastern bloc – and the landscape shifts significantly. MLS ranks in the middle of the pack, but there are leaps to Norway’s Eliteserien and, strangely, the Czech top flight.
In terms of pure high-speed runs, MLS ranks pretty favourably amongst that European pack as well. These data points suggest that good athletes in these leagues should be able to hit the ground running in the US, making them worthwhile markets for its franchises to explore.
Out of my skewed curiosity, I also compared MLS with the USL Championship, which is technically the second division of US football but in effect the top tier of the nation’s promotion and relegation (pro/rel) pyramid. The forward-thinking European clubs have been attentive to it for a little while now, with the likes of Stade de Reims and SL Benfica picking up Kobi Henry and Joshua Wynder respectively in recent years.
And there isn’t too big a gap between the two, at least in these selected metrics. The only substantial disparity is in the average High Intensity Distance players cover per 60 minutes of ball in play: that’s where the leap in level to MLS is most stark. Interestingly, there have only been seven transfers from the USL Championship to MLS franchises in the past year.
Show me the playeeeeeeers
That’s the context, here’s the content. We’re going to pick out some players of certain profiles using SkillCorner data that should be of interest to MLS franchises this summer. Obviously, the focus will be on players born on June 1 2002 and later, making them eligible to the Under-22 Initiative.
Without further ado, let’s get going.
The trusty ol’ press-resistant midfielder
This is the classic profile, the one every club in the world wants. With the game becoming increasingly press-oriented, having a midfielder that’s capable over operating under pressure is of significant importance. We can find the best at it utilising SkillCorner’s Dealing With Pressure data suite.
One name explodes off the screen immediately and its a SCOUTED favourite: Óscar Zambrano.
He tops the Ball Retention Ratio Under Pressure metric among U-22 players in the selected leagues by a significant margin, four entire percentage points above the next best.
He is the precise profile that MLS clubs will be looking at – burgeoning reputation, ready to play and affordable at an estimated €5 million price point. He’s on his way to much bigger things. He’d be perfect.
Another interesting talent high up on this list is Equi Fernández (ranked fifth). He’s been a starter at Boca Juniors for a couple of seasons now and stands out for his all-action style, laced with a fearless tenacity and technical skill. His status at Boca probably puts him out of reach for most if not all MLS organisations but maybe a deal could be struck, especially if the player and his entourage sees value in it like others have.
I’ve liked Victor Hugo whenever I’ve watched him too, and Nathan Joyes is similarly disposed to the Brazilian number eight that hasn’t quite cracked the first team at a competitive Flamengo. He’d be a fantastic pick up for any MLS side.
This list (taken from 2023 data for sample size purposes) includes Federico Redondo and Diego Gómez, prospects that have already made the leap to Inter Miami in MLS. The former’s first months have been stunted by injury and the latter has caught the eye this season, his first full campaign in the US since leaving Club Libertad.
What about their mid-tier European league counterparts? Let’s have a rummage.
This scatter graph is a bit messy but some names of note include: Lucas Bergvall, the teenage sensation that Spurs have already signed; Hugo Larsson, another Swedish midfielder that’s excelled since moving to Eintracht Frankfurt; and William Clem, a graduate of the high-performing FC København academy.
Clem is especially noteworthy because he’s one of those talents that’s on the fringe of their respective first team. A broken foot suffered last September has meant he hasn’t quite cemented himself as a starter, flitting in and out for spells. Could he be someone that an MLS side could convince to come and run their midfield? Very possibly, especially if the pathway at FCK isn’t as clear as hoped.
Romeo Amane is another. He has won a league and cup in Sweden for BK Häcken in the past couple of years and is primed to make an upward move this summer, probably for about €4 million or so. That’s within the wheelhouse for a lot of MLS franchises and he offers significant resale value.
Sticking with Sweden, Adam Wikman of IK Sirius is one to keep an eye on. He’d come pretty cheap and is stringing together starts this year, putting up solid numbers in this metric and beyond. I also have a particular soft spot for Constantin Grameni who ranks above the average in the scatter graph above; MLS would be an interesting move for him and his scalpel of a left foot.
The space-invading striker
Goals are important – they’ll get you noticed, and they’re expensive. If you can score (or at least look like you will) at any level, clubs will always be willing to take a punt on you.
Running the European numbers for Runs In Behind and Cross Receiver Runs by centre-forwards – the best mix to find the chance-getting strikers – I wanted to see one name. I wasn’t disappointed.
Rafiu Durosinmi. I love him. He’s at the extreme of both metrics, putting up monster numbers as the latest Nigerian centre-forward to dominate in Europe, just like Victor Osimhen and Victor Okoh Boniface.
As per those two graphs, he makes loads of runs and gets loads of shots — he is the obvious standout in this data set, as I expected.
An untimely ACL injury derailed his breakout season and scuppered a €8 million move to Eintracht Frankfurt in the winter, meaning he’s still sitting there ready to be stolen away. Have a look, MLS.
Other names to pick up on in that graph are brand-new to me: Matouš Kroulich, a two-way threat, and the space-attacking Anton Matković.
A bit of digging reveals that both are very tall ‘05 and ‘06 strikers that are in and out of mid-table teams in the Czech and Croatian leagues respectively. The relatively small sample size and numerous substitute appearances plump up their numbers to an extent, but both have scored goals at junior level and bagged a handful with the seniors. They’re worth a watch, and they’re the types of profiles MLS sides have taken punts on.
As for the South American class of space-invading, box-moving, shot-getting strikers…
This list is interesting because many of its above-average data points have already made big moves to Europe: Marcos Leonardo has gone to Benfica, Santiago Castro was signed by Bologna, Barça pulled levers to bag Vitor Roque, and Endrick is Endrick. Clubs move early for these guys.
Alejo Véliz is the type of talent that could’ve done with a year in MLS perhaps, but his eye-catching form domestically and internationally catapulted him to Tottenham Hotspur before being shipped off to Sevilla on loan.
One that has actually moved to MLS is Agustín Ojeda, whom NYCFC invested a hefty €7 million in this past off-season. His data sticks out for being a wide attacker who’s happy to hit space in behind defensive lines.
Another in his mould would be Jerónimo Dómina, a compact forward that’s played quite a bit for Club Atlético Union in Argentina as a 17-year-old. Again, the limited sample size plays a part but he’s putting up eye-catching numbers as both a line breaker and box mover, capable of playing across the forward line. He’s another that should be watched closely in coming months.
What have we do in this piece? Firstly, we benchmarked the athletic of MLS against its favouired markets. Then we picked out a selection of young players from lesser those leagues that would represent value for MLS sides’ U-22 Initiative slots. We’ve done it entirely with SkillCorner data.
Those names range from signposting the clear standouts that would be big-money additions that undercut top-five league clubs to highlighting the more typical up-and-coming prospects that MLS franchises like to take low-risk, high-reward bets on.
And having SkillCorner’s unique player tracking-callibrated data provides unique insights that go beyond surface level statistics. Quantifying how well someone like Óscar Zambrano performs under different kinds of pressure, for instance, adds a layer of validation that other metrics can’t. That’s the value.
And finally, get on the Summer of SCOUTED. We won’t tell you again. We have so much great things planned, adding to our usual pieces like this. If you like what we do, please consider subscribing for the price of a pint.
