Brazil: the centre-back goldmine about to explode
From ‘O Monstro’ Thiago Silva to Vitor Reis, Brazil has consistently produced hulking superstars who hardly fit the samba stereotype. How do clubs take advantage?
The most expensive exports in Brazil’s history are all forwards. But its future might be decided by another, perhaps unexpected, position.
In the same way Scandinavia and Nigeria seem to have developed a Super Striker Serum, I believe Brazil is now the go-to spot for centre-back colossi. Not only do transfer trends suggest it is a goldmine for this position, but new physical data from SkillCorner provides further evidence of their elite physical capacity.
As the search for bigger, badder forwards continues, the demand for centre-backs to match their athleticism will intensify. Brazil can meet this demand. If not direct from source at the very least via the exports to Portugal.
A combination of relatively cheap ‘export’ fees, enormous price tags on the continent and a continued recognition at the highest level provide a window into a market yet to be truly mastered. But when the Red Bull Group, City Group and the Seagulls flock directly to a market, expect others to follow. It is ready to explode.
SCOUTED’s analytical epics are all about process. We want to boil down this phenomena into a formula: how much money can clubs make mining this resource? How does a recruitment team use data to identify a quality centre-back in the first place? Can we better refine this profile by analysing the world’s best centre-backs? And - most importantly - how do we apply this profile to discover new defenders that fit the bill?
In this analytical epic…
The Opportunity: documenting the recent transfer history of Brazilian centre-backs to highlight the market gap
The Advantage: using SkillCorner’s new suite of physical data to highlight the key metrics to consider when assessing centre-backs
The Execution: applying this framework to the 2024 Série A and Série B seasons to discover three talents to add to your shortlists
Vamo lá.
The Opportunity
Why Brazil should be considered a goldmine for centre-backs, both in terms of talent and profit.
52 players have been sold by Brazilian clubs for at least €15m. Just three of them are listed as defenders. Only Lucas Beraldo and Vitor Reis are listed as centre-backs. This duo represent the type of recruitment I want to champion.
Paris Saint-Germain signed Beraldo directly from Brazil, rather than waiting for his asking price to double (at least) following an initial move to Europe. It feels like this strategy was informed by previous experiences.
Porto signed a 21-year-old Thiago Silva from Juventude for €2.5m. Four years later, after an unsuccessful spell in Russia and a successful return to Brazil, Milan signed him from Fluminense for €10m. PSG signed him from Milan for €42m and he made 315 appearances for the club. Marquinhos, current club captain and the man with the most appearances in the club’s history, was signed from AS Roma for €31.4m. A year earlier, Roma had signed him as a teenager from Corinthians for €7.2m, including the initial loan fee.
PSG paid four times as much as they ‘needed to’ for two of the most important players in the club’s history. That may be a reductive statement, but the point is clear. Even if the initial deal from Brazil is relatively expensive - not every club will be able to pay €7.2m for a teenage centre-back - there is evidence to suggest that, at the very least, the club will break even.
Consider the below graphics.
To confirm: these show the most expensive Brazilian centre-backs, according to Transfermarkt, based on the most expensive transfer fee paid for them. It also includes their transfer fee when moving from Brazil to a foreign club for the first time: the ‘export fee’ I referred to earlier.
To emphasise my point, allow me to over-simplify and condense this list of 24 players into a collective.
This group was signed for €179,650,000 in total; each player was signed for an average cost of €7.6m at an average age of 21. The combined transfer total using only their highest transfer fee is €542,760,000, for an average cost of €22.7m at an average age of 24 years old. That is a 202.1% increase in value after three years.
Also bear in mind that this does not include double-ups such as David Luiz and, to a lesser extent, Diego Carlos. Benfica signed the former for €500k and sold him to Chelsea for €25m three years later. After another three, Chelsea sold him to PSG (them again) for €50m. PSG even recouped €35m when selling him back to Chelsea two years later.
Likewise, Diego Carlos’ entry misses out the €15m Sevilla paid to Nantes to sign the Brazilian—the French side signed him for just €1.3m from Portuguese side Estoril. These are extreme examples of the rapid value increase, but it is a frequent enough phenomenon, albeit on a smaller scale, to suggest a potential advantage lies untapped.
There is opportunity for clubs outside of the Portuguese-speaking world to become the middle man—Porto and Benfica are the only clubs that signed multiple players on the featured graphic directly from Brazil, the Lusophonic link a clear advantage—or to cut it out completely.
As I alluded to, PSG’s signing of Lucas Beraldo could signal their awareness of this market opportunity. You could argue that Nottingham Forest have caught on, too.
Murillo was signed for an initial €12m fee from Corinthians. He recently signed a new contract with the club until 2029 which will allow Forest to stand firm on the reported asking price of €70m - or increase it further. Murillo’s occasional centre-back partner, Morato, was bought from Benfica for €11m. The Portuguese side signed him from São Paulo for €7.6m three years earlier. Forest have since appointed a Brazilian, Edu, to oversee their burgeoning multi-club project as Sporting Director; the project now includes Forest, Olympiacos and crucially, Rio Ave F.C. in Portugal. A Brazil-to-Europe pipeline is forming, with a Lusophonic link at its heart.
But for clubs without ties to Portugal, the question remains: how can they import defenders directly from Brazil and be confident they’ll stick?
To answer that, we need to find them first. We have the evidence that Brazilian centre-backs are a rich source of profit. Now let’s figure out how to evaluate the talent.
The Advantage
Using Explosive Accelerations to build a complete physical profile and identify players with the athletic capability to fulfil centre-back demands.
From here on out, SkillCorner metrics will be capitalised to distinguish them from generic concepts when referenced - so ‘High-Speed Running’ here means a metric quantified in the data. Let’s begin.
You will be well aware that judging centre-backs with data is one of the most challenging recruitment tasks, especially with event data. Clearances, interceptions and tackles can often reflect the player’s environment more than their ability. James Tarkowski, Sean Dyche’s footballing son, is streets ahead of every other centre-back when it comes to blocking shots and making clearances. Without being too harsh, that does not make him the best defender in the world.
Possession-adjusted metrics, duel success rates and more have been trialled in an attempt to paint a fairer picture of a centre-back’s ability. Even then, only a select few from the best teams in the world consistently show up. Hello, Virgil van Dijk.
Our data partners, SkillCorner, have developed a new metric to solve the issue. Introducing Explosive Accelerations.
In the modern game, a lot of defending is one-vs-one or transitional. To deal with that, you need to be quick. But what type of quick? Not every piece of defending will be a 100m sprint. The best wingers will not allow a defender to reach top speed because they will stutter and feint, decelerate and then accelerate again before exploding away.
Similarly, the outcome of a line-breaking through ball can be decided in the first 5-10 yards. If the defender can reach the ball first, or at least edge in front, they can shield the ball out of play, back to their goalkeeper, or decelerate to perform their own turn out of pressure—William Saliba is a master at this. But to have the chance to exert their physical strength or display their technical skill, they must be capable of an explosive burst. These new metrics help measure the ability to close down space and earn the opportunity to do so.
So, by analysing a list of high-profile centre-backs, can we identify key physical metric markers, with Explosive Accelerations at the core, to apply to Brazil? The theory is that these metrics at the very least play a part in asserting dominance. Of course, correlation is not causation, but assessing this group of objectively elite centre-backs should help us understand what is needed.
I have also chosen to apply the Per 30 Minutes Opposition Team in Possession filter, made possible by SkillCorner’s Game Intelligence insights. This should paint a clearer picture of the athleticism required to defend opposition players. It also prevents build-up style and speed from affecting output.
You could argue this particular profile will benefit high-block, possession-based sides the most; those teams wishing to dominate the opposition and create quantitative advantages in the final third at the risk of conceding transitions. That being said, the ability to close down space is valuable for all approaches.
Here is how we’re going to build the profile:
Analyse physical output of elite high-profile centre-backs
Highlight the key metrics to form the foundation of our profile
Look at high-profile Brazilian centre-backs through that lens
The aim is to find physical markers that seem to be a staple for centre-backs with a universally accepted reputation of being able to defend well, specifically in one-vs-one situations or in transition. What makes an elite centre-back?
2023/24 data will be used throughout, and players must have made at least eight 60-minute appearances to qualify. I have picked six Premier League players as this league demands the most from its centre-backs. But don’t take my word for it.
As you can see, the English top-flight ranks first for most metrics. For Distance per Sprint, it’s the Brasilerão. However, the overall out-of-possession intensity is much lower: a centre-back in the Premier League has to make more than three more High Speed Runs and cover two more meters at High Intensity per minute than centre-backs in Brazil’s first division.
The Primeira Liga is clearly the closest match to the Premier League. It equals the High Speed Run count and takes top spot outright for High Accelerations and High Decelerations. This could help explain why passing the test in Portugal seems to quickly be followed by a big-money move.
Now let’s take a look at the new SkillCorner metrics in more detail. To reiterate: these have been designed to provide greater insight into a player’s ability to close down space or burst out of tight areas. The ability to measure explosiveness was a key gap in a club’s ability to profile players. Now we can use it to exploit a market opportunity.
Just as a quick top speed does not guarantee explosiveness, players that rank lower for PSV-99 (Peak Speed Velocity) may still have the potential to burst into the Sprint band when called up.
Although there is less sprinting overall, LaLiga centre-backs are a closer match to the most explosive groups: the Premier League and the Primeira Liga. For all the questions asked about the quality of Portugal’s top-flight, it seems the physical demands it places on this position group are high-level. Note, too, that Brazil is not a concerning outlier at the other end.
Similar to PSV-99, which reflects the peak speed of a player and the ability to reach it multiple times, the following ‘Time to’ metrics track the time it takes to reach HSR or Sprint speeds (20km/h and 25km/h, respectively) from a standing or walking start. The less time it takes to reach a particular speed, the better. To reiterate: these metrics aim to provide insight into a player’s ability to close down space.
To be clear, for all ‘Time To’ derivatives, it is better to have a lower number. Read the following scatter plots inversely.
Only Premier League and Ligue 1 centre-backs reach the speed bands at in above average time. Brazil is just below average for Time to Sprint and above for Time to HSR. However, centre-backs in Portugal are recording the slowest Time to Sprint and second-slowest Time to High Speed Run, despite the aforementioned physical intensity.
Looking at the Top 3 Times provides a window into the absolute peak physical capacity of a player.
Brasileirão centre-backs have recorded the quickest Top 3 Time To Sprint times and match the Premier League for High Speed Runs. This is an example of the elite athleticism I believe can be extracted from this market.
Now we have looked at centre-backs as a collective from all seven leagues, let’s return to the individual case studies. I’ve selected the following players and will explain why:
Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool)
Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa)
William Saliba (Arsenal)
Micky van de Ven (Tottenham Hotspur)
Rúben Dias (Manchester City)
I think Virgil van Dijk is the best centre-back in the world, so it will be fascinating to peek under the bonnet. His partner, Ibou Konaté, is usually tasked with dealing with channel runners, as is William Saliba at Arsenal—what is the super sweeper secret sauce? Meanwhile, Ezri Konsa has proven his mastery of one-vs-one defending both at full-back and centre-back, reflected in his sensational ground duel success rate—what’s the key ingredient?
Finally, Rúben Dias played more minutes than any other centre-back for eventual champions Manchester City in 2023/24, while Micky van de Ven clocked the fastest top speed in the competition’s recorded history.
So, here is how the Premier League poster boys compare to each other within the context of centre-backs across Europe’s Big Five Leagues, Portuguese Primeira Liga and Brazil’s Série A using a classic selection of SkillCorner metrics. There are 495 datapoints in this sample.
Here are some snapshot points to consider:
Konaté, Van de Ven and Konsa are superhuman specimens: all ranking in the top 3% for at least six metrics.
Dias’ Distance Per Sprint could be a reflection of Man City’s field tilt. They often camp the entire team inside the opposition half which means more distance to cover on the way back when turning over possession.
Dias is the only centre-back not in the top 5% for High Accelerations; another reflection of the point made above?
High Decelerations are the ‘weakest’ metric for both Van Dijk and Van de Ven. In previous SCOUTED x SkillCorner articles, Stephen Ganavas suggested this metric provides a glimpse into a player’s agility - so it is worth bearing in mind for that potential insight.
Now, let’s focus on the new physical metrics to learn more.
Among these six players, Saliba has the quickest Time to Sprint while Van de Ven has the quickest Time to HSR. Already, this highlights the value of considering this metric alongside PSV-99. Despite not matching Van de Ven’s top speed, Saliba is able to reach the 25 km/h Sprint threshold as quickly as the Spurs centre-back from a ‘standing’ start. Van Dijk is not far away either.
The north London centre-backs are the leaders for the same metrics when looking at Top 3 Times. Van Dijk moves closer to the elite group. Dias is the slowest for all four Time To derivatives, although is still above average for Top 3 Time to HSR.
Through this lens, Dias compares less favourably. Despite his ability to cover large distances, his peak capacity in these situations is a level below the others in this group.
Another thing I want to discuss in more detail is that although Virgil van Dijk records the fewest Sprints within this hexad - the only player not in the top 10% - we saw the Liverpool captain rank well for the new metrics. Going further, we can look at the percentage of Sprints that were recorded via Explosive Accelerations. Van Dijk shoots towards the top:
18.1% - Ezri Konsa (92nd percentile)
15.6% - Virgil van Dijk (82nd percentile)
14.8% - William Saliba (79th)
11.6% - Ibrahima Konaté (55th)
9.3% - Micky van de Ven (34th)
6.9% - Rúben Dias (17th)
When he goes, he goes. Just think of his recovery run in the recent game against Manchester United at Anfield. Across that Premier League gameweek, Van Dijk recorded the quickest Time to Sprint of any centre-back and the third-quickest overall (1.16). A similar concept appears to apply to Ezri Konsa, but he goes even more often.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, a possible explanation for Dias’ output could be the larger distances he is asked to cover, perhaps accommodating a steadier climb to top speed. That being said, it looks ‘worse’ because he is being compared to the absolute pinnacle for this role. As you will see later, City do have their own super sweeper, but Dias’ inclusion provides a valuable contrast to consider.
Van de Ven’s output is also interesting. He is the only centre-back in our database racking up 10 Sprints per 30 OTIP and although 0.96 Explosive Accelerations to Sprint represents a top 8% figure, it is a relatively small percentage of his total sprint output. I would suggest that with such a high volume of Explosive Accelerations and Sprints independently, the proportion becomes less important. He is extremely capable of both.
Interrogating the metric in this way further helps establish whether a player is capable of exploding into a Sprint when necessary, even if their current volume suggests they are required to engage thrusters in emergency situations only.
So, for this centre-back profile, here are the metrics I have selected to prioritise:
PSV-99
Sprints Per 30 OTIP (>25 km/h)
Time to Sprint
Top 3 Time to Sprint
Explosive Accelerations to Sprint Per 30 OTIP
High Speed Runs (20-25 km/h)
Time to HSR
Top 3 Time to HSR
Explosive Accelerations to HSR Per 30 OTIP
High Decelerations
PSV-99, Explosive Accelerations and Time To Sprint combine to create a complete physical profile. The total count of Sprints and High Speed Runs help provide context. As we have seen, Rúben Dias ranks high for volume but lower than his elite counterparts in terms of peak capacity. We must look at both.
I have excluded Distance-based metrics for a similar reason; I believe these could be influenced by team style. Of course, it would be incredible to find a centre-back that is already comfortable playing in this role—perhaps that is why allowing a move to Porto, Benfica and Sporting is valued—but the most important thing when going straight to source is to discover a player that has the prerequisite tools; the capacity to fulfil the role.
I am also intrigued by High Decelerations and the ability to learn more about a player’s mobility and agility through this metric so have kept that in.
Essentially, this collection is geared towards finding a player that has the physical capacity to close space at high speed, regardless of how often they currently do it.
Let’s use it to analyse my selection of Brazilians, which are the following:
Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal)
Bremer (Juventus)
Marquinhos (PSG)
Murillo (Nottingham Forest)
Otávio (FC, Famalicão, FC Porto)
Vitor Reis (Santos)
As previously mentioned, Gabriel and Bremer are two of the most valuable centre-backs in the world. Éder Militão, previously ranked fourth, would have been included but he did not meet the playing time threshold for 2023/24. Marquinhos is the replacement.
Murillo and Otávio are the most recent exports to have a data footprint outside of Brazil. They also represent the two types of recruitment explained in the introduction: direct from source, and the Lusophone link.
Finally, Vitor Reis acts as the most recent reference point for the Brasileirão. The 2006-born centre-back was the youngest player in his position to appear in the 2024 Série A season, attracting interest from Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Manchester City and Real Madrid.
As we know, City won the race, making Reis the 7th-most expensive export in Série A history. He is the only defender in the top 10; Lucas Paquetá is the only other non-forward. Given such high-profile interest and a record-breaking transfer, he will help interrogate the profile we have built. Also, when looking at his output, bear in mind that he recorded all this data as an 18-year-old. Remarkable.
Here is how the Brazilians compare within the same context of 495 datapoints:
Firstly, we must highlight Otávio.
Famalicão signed him for €500k after an initial six-month loan and sold him for €12m six months later. The most incredible thing is that he had made just one top-flight appearance before Fama picked him up—they continue to be master operators in the transfer market.
In our dataset of 495 players, Otávio Ataide da Silva is the only player that ranks in the top 10% for:
Top 3 Time to HSR
Top 3 Time to Sprint
Top 5 PSV-99
Explosive Accelerations to HSR P30 OTIP
Explosive Accelerations to Sprint P30 OTIP
Sprints Per 30 OTIP (>25 km/h)
188 cm tall, left-footed and Brazilian: I don’t think it’s a bold prediction to say that Porto will make a substantial profit. Soon.
Earlier, I used the ability to defend a through ball as an example ‘closing space’ scenario. In addition, a player's ability to burst ahead of a centre-forward and intercept passes into feet could also be evaluated by this data. To explore this front-footed case, let’s study Gabriel Magalhães.
An aerial monster and magnet for the ball in both boxes, it appears Gabriel defers the super sweeping to Saliba when comparing their physical output. The Frenchman just does more.
However, the Brazilian is aggressive in proactive attempts to win the ball before it arrives at a striker's feet: closing down space.
His proficiency is reflected by a Top 3 Time to HSR on par with William Saliba and Murillo (91st percentile) and an 86th percentile Top 3 Time To Sprint.
Side note: Otávio is one of five players to clock the leading time of 0.55:
🇧🇷 Otávio (Famalicão & FC Porto)
🇧🇷 Bruno Fabiano Alves (Cuiabá-MT)
🇧🇷 João ‘Alemão’ Victor Tornich (Portimonense S.C.)
🇨🇭 Manuel Akanji (Manchester City)
🇮🇹 Alessandro Vogliacco (Genoa CFC)
This is also the reason I have highlighted Manuel Akanji in these graphs as it shows that Manchester City do have a super sweeper profile in the squad, and an elite one at that.
An even more fascinating player to look at is Bremer. He had an even lower volume of Explosive Accelerations than Gabriel but ranks in the 97th percentile for Top 3 Time to HSR, 88th percentile for Top 3 Time to Sprint and 97th percentile for Top 5 PSV-99.
This not only shows the value of acknowledging the ‘Top’ metric when assessing centre-backs - it does not appear to be affected as much by a player’s role within a team - but it also provides another example of the point I have tried to make throughout: the peak physical capacity of Brazilian centre-backs appears to be monstrous, even if they do not ‘hulk out’ very often.
The fact Vitor Reis ranks more favourably when looking at the normalised Time To metrics could be a reflection of his age. His peak capacity and therefore Top Times will improve as he builds more muscle and develops physically. But he already has a strong base to build from.
Finally, I want to use Murillo to introduce another way to interpret the Explosive Accelerations data and turn a longlist into a shortlist.
By calculating the share of High Accelerations that are Explosive - i.e how often does a player reach the Sprint band when accelerating at high speed? - we can better understand the explosiveness of a player.
For example, within our dataset, Murillo ranks in the 66th percentile with 2.59 High Accelerations per 30 OTIP. That’s good. 34.7% of those reach the Explosive Acceleration to Sprint threshold, placing him in the 90th percentile for that metric. That’s even better.
Murillo is built like a 100m sprinter, for whom an explosive start out of the blocks is so vital. Combine this data with his 99th percentile Top 3 Time To Sprint and a 98th Percentile Top 5 PSV-99 and I do not think it’s farfetched to suggest he could run a sub-11-second time.
Although he does not have to tap into this athleticism as often due to Forest’s highly-effective deep block, in which he also thrives, his physical profile suggests he could make the jump to a riskier defensive set-up.
Consider the aforementioned James Tarkowski alongside Murillo.
This duo ranked second and third for clearances across Europe’s Big Five Leagues in 2023/24 and rank first and do so again this season. Their volume of Sprints and High Speed Runs are also similar, both just below average.
But there is a stark contrast between their physical capacity.
This insight is the ultimate value of what we have discussed. These metrics allow us to separate team environment and role to better evaluate player suitability, especially for a super sweeper profile. Brazil is the best place to start looking.
The Scouting
With a better understanding of the profile that generates the big-bucks, let’s explore this centre-back goldmine for the next super-sweeping colossus.
In this final section, you will be seeing a player’s output through the lens of the 2024 Série A and Série B seasons. There are 141 datapoints in this sample.
There is no prejudice against the second-tier. Remember, Otávio had barely played any senior football at all but has emerged as the poster boy of this profile. It’s always best to cast a wider net at first.
Below is a comparison of the 10 centre-backs born in 2002 or later that met the matches played criteria during the 2004 season. Again, I will emphasise the need to bear in mind their age.
Immediately, three names stand out: Vitor Reis, Jonathan and Thalisson. It is also worth noting that Douglas Mendes spent the 2024 season on loan at Bragantino from Salzburg; of course Red Bull have their finger in this pie.
Now let’s look at the Time To metrics.
Jair Cunha has entered the chat.
His initial profile was promising. But, after seeing his Times, I went to discover some more information. The 19-year-old played 1,700 minutes across 20 appearances for Santos during their title-winning Série B campaign. This comes after missing 10 months of 2023 recovering from a cruciate ligament injury in his right knee. During his recovery, Jair said he grew two more centimetres: he now stands at 197 cm tall. That is definitely colossal. He is also both-footed. I imagine he is already on plenty of clubs’ shortlists.
Fortunately for Santos, in April of last year, Jair renewed his contract with the club until 2026. That should guarantee a decent fee. If he maintains this output in the first half of the 2025 Série A season, I expect there will be plenty of offers this summer.
Thalisson also spent the 2024 season in Série B, but featured for Coritiba in the first tier in 2023 after spending the part of the season on loan at fourth tier Camboriú.
Intriguingly, Jonathan Jesus reaches the matches threshold due to the fact he started the 2024 season in Série B with Ceará SC before Cruzeiro signed him for a reported €1.4m in July. Their willingness to pay six figures after such a short string of first-team starts suggests he is another to keep a close eye on. He has the quickest PSV-99 in this 141-player dataset.
With SkillCorner data, you can apply more of the concepts discussed in the Opportunity and Advantage sections to better evaluate this group of players. But the early signs suggest that we will see a few names linked to an English or Portuguese club sooner rather than later.
Hi guys, brilliant article again. I'm studying data analytics and just wanted to ask how you guys got into sports analytics or scouting and if there are any books, publications, newsletters etc that you would recommend to someone looking to get started.
Really interesting discussion. I'm personally a big fan of defenders that can accelerate and decelerate at ease, so having a way to kinda quantify that is massive.
Jair is seemingly signing for league champions Botafogo, for around 14 million euros (!!). You're definitely onto something.